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We develop approximate estimation methods for exponential random graph models (ERGMs), whose likelihood is proportional to an intractable normalizing constant. The usual approach approximates this constant with Monte Carlo simulations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-11 Angelo Mele , Lingjiong Zhu

A rare event is defined by a low probability of occurrence. Accurate estimation of such small probabilities is of utmost importance across diverse domains. Conventional Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, demanding an exorbitant number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Zhenggqi Gao , Dinghuai Zhang , Luca Daniel , Duane S. Boning

Recent studies suggest utilizing generative models instead of traditional auto-regressive algorithms for time series forecasting (TSF) tasks. These non-auto-regressive approaches involving different generative methods, including GAN,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jiangxuan Long , Zhao Song , Chiwun Yang

Density regression models allow a comprehensive understanding of data by modeling the complete conditional probability distribution. While flexible estimation approaches such as normalizing flows (NF) work particularly well in multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-13 Marcel Arpogaus , Thomas Kneib , Thomas Nagler , David Rügamer

This paper presents a groundbreaking approach to causal inference by integrating continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) with parametric submodels, enhancing their geometric sensitivity and improving upon traditional Targeted Maximum Likelihood…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-02 Kaiwen Hou

Computing the marginal likelihood (also called the Bayesian model evidence) is an important task in Bayesian model selection, providing a principled quantitative way to compare models. The learned harmonic mean estimator solves the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-22 Alicja Polanska , Matthew A. Price , Alessio Spurio Mancini , Jason D. McEwen

Rectified flow (Liu et al., 2022; Liu, 2022; Wu et al., 2023) is a method for defining a transport map between two distributions, and enjoys popularity in machine learning, although theoretical results supporting the validity of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Gonzalo Mena , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Larry Wasserman

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods provide a useful alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing inference of intractable distributions. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms constitute a family of AIS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Antonios Valkanas , Mark Coates

The main contribution of this paper is the formulation of a diffuse approximation method(DAM), for two-dimensional channel flows. The proposed method is based on the vorticity-streamfunction formulation. The DAM which estimates derivates of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-11-19 Christian Prax , Hamou Sadat

Machine learning methods based on normalizing flows have been shown to address important challenges, such as critical slowing-down and topological freezing, in the sampling of gauge field configurations in simple lattice field theories. A…

Normalising flows are tractable probabilistic models that leverage the power of deep learning to describe a wide parametric family of distributions, all while remaining trainable using maximum likelihood. We discuss how these methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Simon Alexanderson , Gustav Eje Henter

We obtain non asymptotic concentration bounds for two kinds of stochastic approximations. We first consider the deviations between the expectation of a given function of the Euler scheme of some diffusion process at a fixed deterministic…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-12 Noufel Frikha , Stephane Menozzi

The tree-based ensembles are known for their outstanding performance in classification and regression problems characterized by feature vectors represented by mixed-type variables from various ranges and domains. However, considering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Patryk Wielopolski , Maciej Zięba

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Lucas Berry , David Meger

Sampling from unnormalised discrete distributions is a fundamental problem across various domains. While Markov chain Monte Carlo offers a principled approach, it often suffers from slow mixing and poor convergence. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zijing Ou , Ruixiang Zhang , Yingzhen Li

Normalizing flows define a probability distribution by an explicit invertible transformation $\boldsymbol{\mathbf{z}}=f(\boldsymbol{\mathbf{x}})$. In this work, we present implicit normalizing flows (ImpFlows), which generalize normalizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-18 Cheng Lu , Jianfei Chen , Chongxuan Li , Qiuhao Wang , Jun Zhu

We introduce Projected Latent Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PL-MCMC), a technique for sampling from the high-dimensional conditional distributions learned by a normalizing flow. We prove that a Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Chris Cannella , Mohammadreza Soltani , Vahid Tarokh

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are universal density estimators based on Neural Networks. However, this universality is limited: the density's support needs to be diffeomorphic to a Euclidean space. In this paper, we propose a novel method to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Christian Horvat , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-01 Sergios Agapiou , Gareth O. Roberts , Sebastian J. Vollmer

Normalizing flows, diffusion normalizing flows and variational autoencoders are powerful generative models. This chapter provides a unified framework to handle these approaches via Markov chains. We consider stochastic normalizing flows as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-06 Paul Hagemann , Johannes Hertrich , Gabriele Steidl