Related papers: Probability equivalent level of Value at Risk and …
We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected…
For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…
A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…
The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed…
This paper focuses on the class of routing games that have uncertain costs. Assuming that agents are risk-averse and select paths with minimum conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) associated to them, we define the notion of CVaR-based Wardrop…
We extend the "probability-equivalent level of VaR and CoVaR" (PELCoV) methodology to accommodate bivariate risks modeled by a Student-t copula, relaxing the strong dependence assumptions of earlier approaches and enhancing the framework's…
We consider the probability that the random signed sum $\xi_1 v_1 + \dotsb + \xi_n v_n$ lies within a given distance $r$ of the origin, where $v_1,\dotsc,v_n \in \mathbb{R}^d$ are fixed unit vectors and $\xi_1,\dotsc,\xi_n$ are…
In this paper, we study a bi-criterion framework for assessing scoring functions in the context of binary classification. The positive and negative predictive values (ppv and npv, respectively) are conditional probabilities of the true…
Logistic regression model is widely used in many studies to investigate the relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ and a set of potential predictors $\mathbf X$. The binary response may represent, for example, the occurrence of…
We consider bilevel linear problems, where some parameters are stochastic, and the leader has to decide in a here-and-now fashion, while the follower has complete information. In this setting, the leader's outcome can be modeled by a random…
For a polynomial $P_n$ of degree $n$, Bernstein's inequality states that $\|P_n'\| \le n \|P_n\|$ for all $L^p$ norms on the unit circle, $0<p\le\infty,$ with equality for $P_n(z)= c z^n.$ We study this inequality for random polynomials,…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution plays a critical role in risk assessment across various domains, such as hydrology, climate science, and finance. In this study, we investigate its application in analyzing intraday trading…
We provide an elementary proof of the dual representation of Expected Shortfall on the space of integrable random variables over a general probability space. Unlike the results in the extant literature, our proof only exploits basic…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
We present the expected values from p-value hacking as a choice of the minimum p-value among $m$ independents tests, which can be considerably lower than the "true" p-value, even with a single trial, owing to the extreme skewness of the…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
In this paper, we discuss the utilization of perturbed risk levels (PRLs) for the solution of chance-constrained problems via sampling-based approaches. PRLs allow the consideration of distributional ambiguity by rescaling the risk level of…
Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR) measure is a convenient coherent risk measure. Due to certain difficulties in finding its analytical representation, it was previously calculated explicitly only for the normal distribution. We succeeded to…