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Faraday complexity describes whether a spectropolarimetric observation has simple or complex magnetic structure. Quickly determining the Faraday complexity of a spectropolarimetric observation is important for processing large, polarised…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-01 M. J. Alger , J. D. Livingston , N. M. McClure-Griffiths , J. L. Nabaglo , O. I. Wong , C. S. Ong

We developed a reliable probabilistic solar flare forecasting model using a deep neural network, named Deep Flare Net-Reliable (DeFN-R). The model can predict the maximum classes of flares that occur in the following 24 h after observing…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-09-02 Naoto Nishizuka , Yûki Kubo , Komei Sugiura , Mitsue Den , Mamoru Ishii

In modern astrophysics, the machine learning has increasingly gained more popularity with its incredibly powerful ability to make predictions or calculated suggestions for large amounts of data. We describe an application of the supervised…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2018-12-26 Yu Bai , JiFeng Liu , Song Wang , Fan Yang

The Space-Weather ANalytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) is a multivariate time series benchmark dataset recently created to serve the heliophysics community as a testbed for solar flare forecasting models. SWAN-SF contains 54 unique…

Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-28 Yasser Abduallah , Jason T. L. Wang

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Anas Al-lahham , Obaidah Theeb , Khaled Elalem , Tariq A. Alshawi , Saleh A. Alshebeili

A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 Xiantong Wang , Yang Chen , Gabor Toth , Ward B. Manchester , Tamas I. Gombosi , Alfred O. Hero , Zhenbang Jiao , Hu Sun , Meng Jin , Yang Liu

A number of methods of flare prediction rely on classification of physical characteristics of an active region, in particular optical classification of sunspots, and historical rates of flaring for a given classification. However these…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 M. S. Wheatland

This article is an introduction to machine learning for financial forecasting, planning and analysis (FP\&A). Machine learning appears well suited to support FP\&A with the highly automated extraction of information from large amounts of…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-13 Helmut Wasserbacher , Martin Spindler

Solar irradiance is fundamental data crucial for analyses related to weather and climate. High-precision estimation models are necessary to create areal data for solar irradiance. In this study, we developed a novel estimation model by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-08 Jun Sasaki , Maki Okada , Kenji Utsunomiya , Koji Yamaguchi

The existing flare prediction primarily relies on photospheric magnetic field parameters from the entire active region (AR), such as Space-Weather HMI Activity Region Patches (SHARP) parameters. However, these parameters may not capture the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-10-28 Xuebao Li , Xuefeng Li , Yanfang Zheng , Ting Li , Pengchao Yan , Hongwei Ye , Shunhuang Zhang , Xiaotian Wang , Yongshang Lv , Xusheng Huang

Two pressing topics in the theory of deep learning are the interpretation of feature learning (FL) mechanisms and the determination of implicit bias of networks in the rich regime. Current theories of rich FL often appear in the form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Noa Rubin , Orit Davidovich , Zohar Ringel

This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…

Sunquakes are seismic emissions visible on the solar surface, associated with some solar flares. Although discovered in 1998, they have only recently become a more commonly detected phenomenon. Despite the availability of several manual…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-14 Vanessa Mercea , Alin Razvan Paraschiv , Daniela Adriana Lacatus , Anca Marginean , Diana Besliu-Ionescu

Photovoltaics (PV) are widely used to harvest solar energy, an important form of renewable energy. Photovoltaic arrays consist of multiple solar panels constructed from solar cells. Solar cells in the field are vulnerable to various…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-13 Xinyi Song , Kennedy Odongo , Francis G. Pascual , Yili Hong

We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept.…

Space Physics · Physics 2016-01-20 J. A. Guerra , A. Pulkkinen , V. M. Uritsky

We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-15 Zeyu Sun , Monica G. Bobra , Xiantong Wang , Yu Wang , Hu Sun , Tamas Gombosi , Yang Chen , Alfred Hero

With increasing interest in explaining machine learning (ML) models, the first part of this two-part study synthesizes recent research on methods for explaining global and local aspects of ML models. This study distinguishes explainability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-17 Montgomery Flora , Corey Potvin , Amy McGovern , Shawn Handler

Solar wind classification is conducive to understand the physical processes ongoing at the Sun and solar wind evolution in the interplanetary space, and furthermore, it is helpful for early warning of space weather events. With rapid…

Space Physics · Physics 2019-08-26 Hui Li , Chi Wang , Cui Tu , Fei Xu

Deep learning models are widely used across computer vision and other domains. When working on the model induction, selecting the right architecture for a given dataset often relies on repetitive trial-and-error procedures. This procedure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yen-Chia Chen , Hsing-Kuo Pao , Hanjuan Huang
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