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Predicting counterfactual distributions in complex dynamical systems is essential for scientific modeling and decision-making in domains such as public health and medicine. However, existing methods often rely on point estimates or purely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Wenhao Mu , Zhi Cao , Mehmed Uludag , Alexander Rodríguez

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

We present a class of diffusion-based algorithms to draw samples from high-dimensional probability distributions given their unnormalized densities. Ideally, our methods can transport samples from a Gaussian distribution to a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Anand Jerry George , Nicolas Macris

With significant advancements in diffusion models, addressing the potential risks of dataset bias becomes increasingly important. Since generated outputs directly suffer from dataset bias, mitigating latent bias becomes a key factor in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Yeongmin Kim , Byeonghu Na , Minsang Park , JoonHo Jang , Dongjun Kim , Wanmo Kang , Il-Chul Moon

We study the parameter estimation problem for a varying index coefficient model in high dimensions. Unlike the most existing works that iteratively estimate the parameters and link functions, based on the generalized Stein's identity, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Sen Na , Zhuoran Yang , Zhaoran Wang , Mladen Kolar

Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-03 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Andrea Arnold

Discrete diffusion models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling on sequence data; however, the information-theoretic principles governing their reverse processes remain significantly less understood than those of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Alberto Foresti , Mustapha Bounoua , Giulio Franzese , Luca Ambrogioni , Pietro Michiardi

We present our deep learning framework to solve and accelerate the Time-Dependent partial differential equation's solution of one and two spatial dimensions. We demonstrate DiffusionNet solver by solving the 2D transient heat conduction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Mahmoud Asem

We address the inverse problem of identifying a time-dependent potential coefficient in a one-dimensional diffusion equation subject to Dirichlet boundary conditions and a nonlocal integral overdetermination constraint reflecting spatially…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Arshyn Altybay , Michael Ruzhansky

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools in generative modeling, yet their theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this work, we focus on the Wasserstein convergence analysis of score-based diffusion models.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Yifeng Yu , Lu Yu

Test-time scaling through reward-guided generation remains largely unexplored for discrete diffusion models despite its potential as a promising alternative. In this work, we introduce Iterative Reward-Guided Refinement (IterRef), a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Sanghyun Lee , Sunwoo Kim , Seungryong Kim , Jongho Park , Dongmin Park

Due to the mechanism of recording, the presence of multiple transactions at each recording time becomes a common feature for high-frequency data in financial market. Using random matrix theory, this paper considers the estimation of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-06 Moming Wang , Ningning Xia , You Zhou

In this work, we propose \texttt{TimeGrad}, an autoregressive model for multivariate probabilistic time series forecasting which samples from the data distribution at each time step by estimating its gradient. To this end, we use diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-09 Kashif Rasul , Calvin Seward , Ingmar Schuster , Roland Vollgraf

Time-varying parameter VARs with stochastic volatility are routinely used for structural analysis and forecasting in settings involving a few endogenous variables. Applying these models to high-dimensional datasets has proved to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-20 Joshua C. C. Chan

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-13 Wen-Hsi Yang , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-01 Ian Osband , Zheng Wen , Seyed Mohammad Asghari , Vikranth Dwaracherla , Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy

This article concerns second-order time discretization of subdiffusion equations with time-dependent diffusion coefficients. High-order differentiability and regularity estimates are established for subdiffusion equations with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-05 Bangti Jin , Buyang Li , Zhi Zhou

We study the problem of estimating time-varying coefficients in ordinary differential equations. Current theory only applies to the case when the associated state variables are observed without measurement errors as presented in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-07 Heng Lian

Biased enhanced sampling methods utilizing collective variables (CVs) are powerful tools for sampling conformational ensembles. Due to high intrinsic dimensions, efficiently generating conformational ensembles for complex systems requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Yikai Liu , Tushar K. Ghosh , Guang Lin , Ming Chen