Related papers: Computing Black Scholes with Uncertain Volatility-…
The present paper proposes a new framework for describing the stock price dynamics. In the traditional geometric Brownian motion model and its variants, volatility plays a vital role. The modern studies of asset pricing expand around…
Extracting market expectations has always been an important issue when making national policies and investment decisions in financial markets. In option markets, the most popular way has been to extract implied volatilities to assess the…
We take the holistic approach of computing an OTC claim value that incorporates credit and funding liquidity risks and their interplays, instead of forcing individual price adjustments: CVA, DVA, FVA, KVA. The resulting nonlinear…
Uncertainty quantification is at the core of the reliability and robustness of machine learning. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework to dissect the uncertainty, especially the \textit{epistemic} component, in deep learning…
It was demonstrated previously that the stochastic volatility emerges as the gauge field necessary for restoring the local symmetry under changes of the prices of the stocks inside the Black-Scholes (BS) equation. When this occurs, then a…
This paper is devoted to the price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. A novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model is introduced with path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are…
The limitations of the classical Black-Scholes model are examined by comparing calculated and actual historical prices of European call options on stocks from several sectors of the S&P 500. Persistent differences between the two prices…
We consider a generic market model with a single stock and with random volatility. We assume that there is a number of tradable options for that stock with different strike prices. The paper states the problem of finding a pricing rule that…
The problem of quantile hedging for basket derivatives in the Black-Scholes model with correlation is considered. Explicit formulas for the probability maximizing function and the cost reduction function are derived. Applicability of the…
The Black-Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time-to-maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power…
Time variation and persistence are crucial properties of volatility that are often studied separately in energy volatility forecasting models. Here, we propose a novel approach that allows shocks with heterogeneous persistence to vary…
We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting…
We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…
We present an explicit hedging strategy, which enables to prove arbitrageness of market incorporating at least two assets depending on the same random factor. The implied Black-Scholes volatility, computed taking into account the form of…
In this article we consider the problem of pricing and hedging high-dimensional Asian basket options by Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. We assume a Black-Scholes market with time-dependent volatilities and show how to compute the deltas by…
It is known that the probability is not a conserved quantity in the stock market, given the fact that it corresponds to an open system. In this paper we analyze the flow of probability in this system by expressing the ideal Black-Scholes…
This paper presents a multinomial method for option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential Variance Gamma process. The continuous time Variance Gamma process is approximated by a discrete time Markov chain with the same…
Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) has attracted significant attention from both the academic field and real world financial markets. As remarked by Yang and Dai, the Black and Scholes framework seems to be inappropriate…
Using tools from spectral analysis, singular and regular perturbation theory, we develop a systematic method for analytically computing the approximate price of a derivative-asset. The payoff of the derivative-asset may be path-dependent.…
We amend and extend the Chiarella model of financial markets to deal with arbitrary long-term value drifts in a consistent way. This allows us to improve upon existing calibration schemes, opening the possibility of calibrating individual…