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This paper studies learning in markets with aggregate uncertainty about whether trade is efficient. A long-lived seller offers prices to buyers, who are short-lived and arrive according to a Poisson process. A hidden state determines…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-14 Justus Preusser

Prediction markets are widely treated as forecasting devices that reveal collective expectations about uncertain futures. This article argues that under specifiable conditions they also function as coordination mechanisms: public…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-29 Maksym Nechepurenko

In the Learning to Price setting, a seller posts prices over time with the goal of maximizing revenue while learning the buyer's valuation. This problem is very well understood when values are stationary (fixed or iid). Here we study the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Renato Paes Leme , Balasubramanian Sivan , Yifeng Teng , Pratik Worah

We study a repeated game with payoff externalities and observable actions where two players receive information over time about an underlying payoff-relevant state, and strategically coordinate their actions. Players learn about the true…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2018-09-05 Pathikrit Basu , Kalyan Chatterjee , Tetsuya Hoshino , Omer Tamuz

A seller sells an object over time but is uncertain how the buyer learns their willingness-to-pay. We consider informational robustness under \textit{limited commitment}, where the seller offers a price \textit{each period} to maximize…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-10 Zihao Li , Jonathan Libgober , Xiaosheng Mu

We consider an infinite collection of agents who make decisions, sequentially, about an unknown underlying binary state of the world. Each agent, prior to making a decision, receives an independent private signal whose distribution depends…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-09-07 Kimon Drakopoulos , Asuman Ozdaglar , John Tsitsiklis

I consider the monopolistic pricing of informational good. A buyer's willingness to pay for information is from inferring the unknown payoffs of actions in decision making. A monopolistic seller and the buyer each observes a private signal…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2018-10-18 Weijie Zhong

I study the problem of social learning in a model where agents move sequentially. Each agent receives a private signal about the underlying state of the world, observes the past actions in a neighborhood of individuals, and chooses her…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-05-12 Yangbo Song

We study the implications of endogenous pricing for learning and welfare in the classic herding model . When prices are determined exogenously, it is known that learning occurs if and only if signals are unbounded. By contrast, we show that…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-06-04 Itai Arieli , Moran Koren , Rann Smorodinsky

We study a sequential social learning model in which there is uncertainty about the informativeness of a common signal-generating process. Rational agents arrive in order and make decisions based on the past actions of others and their…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-07-01 Wanying Huang

We consider a revenue optimizing seller selling a single item to a buyer, on whose private value the seller has a noisy signal. We show that, when the signal is kept private, arbitrarily more revenue could potentially be extracted than if…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-20 Hu Fu , Chris Liaw , Pinyan Lu , Zhihao Gavin Tang

In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-24 Laurent E. Calvet , Veronika Czellar

We introduce an interactive market setup with sequential auctions where agents receive variegated signals with a known deadline. The effects of differential information and mutual learning on the allocation of overall profit \& loss (P\&L)…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-14 N. Serhan Aydin

Algorithmic trading, due to its inherent nature, is a difficult problem to tackle; there are too many variables involved in the real world which make it almost impossible to have reliable algorithms for automated stock trading. The lack of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Abhishek Nan , Anandh Perumal , Osmar R. Zaiane

We study a single-buyer pricing problem with unreliable side information, motivated by the increasing use of AI-assisted decision-making and LLM-based predictions. The seller observes a private sample that may be either accurate (coinciding…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Zhihao Gavin Tang , Yixin Tao , Shixin Wang

We consider a group of Bayesian agents who are each given an independent signal about an unknown state of the world, and proceed to communicate with each other. We study the question of asymptotic learning: do agents learn the state of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-14 Elchanan Mossel , Allan Sly , Omer Tamuz

Observational learning is a type of learning that occurs as a function of observing, retaining and possibly replicating or imitating the behaviour of another agent. It is a core mechanism appearing in various instances of social learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-22 Diana Borsa , Bilal Piot , Rémi Munos , Olivier Pietquin

Motivated by online advertising auctions, we consider repeated Vickrey auctions where goods of unknown value are sold sequentially and bidders only learn (potentially noisy) information about a good's value once it is purchased. We adopt an…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-11-19 Jonathan Weed , Vianney Perchet , Philippe Rigollet

We consider a model of Bayesian observational learning in which a sequence of agents receives a private signal about an underlying binary state of the world. Each agent makes a decision based on its own signal and its observations of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Shuo Wu , Pawan Poojary , Randall Berry

The computation of equilibrium prices at which the supply of goods matches their demand typically relies on complete information on agents' private attributes, e.g., suppliers' cost functions, which are often unavailable in practice.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Devansh Jalota , Haoyuan Sun , Navid Azizan
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