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We introduce Pawsterior, a variational flow-matching framework for improved and extended simulation-based inference (SBI). Many SBI problems involve posteriors constrained by structured domains, such as bounded physical parameters or hybrid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jorge Carrasco-Pollo , Floor Eijkelboom , Jan-Willem van de Meent

Stochastic planning can be reduced to probabilistic inference in large discrete graphical models, but hardness of inference requires approximation schemes to be used. In this paper we argue that such applications can be disentangled along…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-09-05 Zhennan Wu , Roni Khardon

Random feature latent variable models (RFLVMs) represent the state-of-the-art in latent variable models, capable of handling non-Gaussian likelihoods and effectively uncovering patterns in high-dimensional data. However, their heavy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Ying Li , Zhidi Lin , Yuhao Liu , Michael Minyi Zhang , Pablo M. Olmos , Petar M. Djurić

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification: simulators are only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues , Michael Arbel , Florence Forbes

We present VBPI-Mixtures, an algorithm designed to enhance the accuracy of phylogenetic posterior distributions, particularly for tree-topology and branch-length approximations. Despite the Variational Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Oskar Kviman , Ricky Molén , Jens Lagergren

The Cut posterior and related Semi-Modular Inference are Generalised Bayes methods for Modular Bayesian evidence combination. Analysis is broken up over modular sub-models of the joint posterior distribution. Model-misspecification in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Chris U. Carmona , Geoff K. Nicholls

The Bayesian update can be viewed as a variational problem by characterizing the posterior as the minimizer of a functional. The variational viewpoint is far from new and is at the heart of popular methods for posterior approximation.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Variational inference is a fast and scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo and has been widely applied to posterior inference tasks in statistics and machine learning. A traditional approach for implementing mean-field variational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Qiang Du , Kaizheng Wang , Edith Zhang , Chenyang Zhong

Boosting variational inference (BVI) approximates an intractable probability density by iteratively building up a mixture of simple component distributions one at a time, using techniques from sparse convex optimization to provide both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Trevor Campbell , Xinglong Li

Approximate Bayesian inference for models with computationally expensive, black-box likelihoods poses a significant challenge, especially when the posterior distribution is complex. Many inference methods struggle to explore the parameter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Francesco Silvestrin , Chengkun Li , Luigi Acerbi

We propose an optimization algorithm for Variational Inference (VI) in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates where the variational space is a Riemann manifold. We develop an efficient algorithm for Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-18 Martin Magris , Mostafa Shabani , Alexandros Iosifidis

In this paper, we propose CI-VI an efficient and scalable solver for semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI). Our method, first, maps SIVI's evidence lower bound (ELBO) to a form involving a nonlinear functional nesting of expected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Vincent Moens , Hang Ren , Alexandre Maraval , Rasul Tutunov , Jun Wang , Haitham Ammar

Bayesian neural network models (BNN) have re-surged in recent years due to the advancement of scalable computations and its utility in solving complex prediction problems in a wide variety of applications. Despite the popularity and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-20 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Zihuan Liu , Tapabrata Maiti

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) promise to combine the predictive performance of neural networks with principled uncertainty modeling important for safety-critical systems and decision making. However, posterior uncertainty estimates depend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Tristan Cinquin , Robert Bamler

The quest for biologically plausible deep learning is driven, not just by the desire to explain experimentally-observed properties of biological neural networks, but also by the hope of discovering more efficient methods for training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-22 Zuozhu Liu , Tony Q. S. Quek , Shaowei Lin

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

This is a course project report with complete methodology, experiments, references and mathematical derivations. Matrix factorization [1] is a widely used technique in recommendation systems. Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF) [2]…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Ruixuan Xu , Xiangxiang Weng

There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-11 Qihui Chen , Zheng Fang , Ruixuan Liu

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) has emerged as a principled approach to produce reliable uncertainty estimates by integrating deep neural networks with Bayesian inference, and the selection of informative prior distributions remains a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Pengcheng Hao , Ercan Engin Kuruoglu

Likelihood-free inference (LFI) methods, such as approximate Bayesian computation, have become commonplace for conducting inference in complex models. Many approaches are based on summary statistics or discrepancies derived from synthetic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , Lucas Kock , David J. Nott