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Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Wenhui Sophia Lu , Wing Hung Wong

Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-28 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

Traditional neural networks are simple to train but they typically produce overconfident predictions. In contrast, Bayesian neural networks provide good uncertainty quantification but optimizing them is time consuming due to the large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Yadi Wei , Roni Khardon

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Antonios Alexos , Alex Boyd , Stephan Mandt

The key to VI is the selection of a tractable density to approximate the Bayesian posterior. For large and complex models a common choice is to assume independence between multivariate blocks in a partition of the parameter space. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-07 Yu Fu , Michael Stanley Smith , Anastasios Panagiotelis

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Nikolaos Gianniotis

We introduce stochastic normalizing flows, an extension of continuous normalizing flows for maximum likelihood estimation and variational inference (VI) using stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Using the theory of rough paths, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Liam Hodgkinson , Chris van der Heide , Fred Roosta , Michael W. Mahoney

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are powerful generative models widely used for learning interpretable latent spaces, quantifying uncertainty, and compressing data for downstream generative tasks. VAEs typically rely on diagonal Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Peter Sorrenson , Lukas Lührs , Hans Olischläger , Ullrich Köthe

We propose a robust and scalable variational Bayes (VB) framework designed to effectively handle contamination and outliers in dataset. Our approach partitions the data into $m$ disjoint subsets and formulates a joint optimization problem…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Jiawei Yan , Ju Liu , Weidong Liu , Jiyuan Tu

Normalizing flow-based variational inference (flow VI) is a promising approximate inference approach, but its performance remains inconsistent across studies. Numerous algorithmic choices influence flow VI's performance. We conduct a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Abhinav Agrawal , Justin Domke

Spatial whole-brain Bayesian modeling of task-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a great computational challenge. Most of the currently proposed methods therefore do inference in subregions of the brain separately or do…

Computation · Statistics 2017-01-03 Per Sidén , Anders Eklund , David Bolin , Mattias Villani

Due to their uncertainty quantification, Bayesian solutions to inverse problems are the framework of choice in applications that are risk averse. These benefits come at the cost of computations that are in general, intractable. New advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Rafael Orozco , Ali Siahkoohi , Mathias Louboutin , Felix J. Herrmann

The Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood (BSL) method is a widely-used tool for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. This method assumes that some summary statistics are normally distributed, which can be incorrect in many applications. We propose…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-16 Nhat-Minh Nguyen , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Christopher Drovandi , David Nott

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

For approximating a target distribution given only its unnormalized log-density, stochastic gradient-based variational inference (VI) algorithms are a popular approach. For example, Wasserstein VI (WVI) and black-box VI (BBVI) perform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Kyurae Kim , Qiang Fu , Yi-An Ma , Jacob R. Gardner , Trevor Campbell

The efficient resolution of Bayesian inverse problems remains challenging due to the high computational cost of traditional sampling methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Daniil Sherki , Ivan Oseledets , Ekaterina Muravleva

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-09 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya
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