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We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

In this review, we address the use of Monte Carlo methods for approximating definite integrals of the form $Z = \int L(x) d P(x)$, where $L$ is a target function (often a likelihood) and $P$ a finite measure. We present vertical-likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-24 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

We establish a deterministic and stochastic spherical quasi-interpolation framework featuring scaled zonal kernels derived from radial basis functions on the ambient Euclidean space. The method incorporates both quasi-Monte Carlo and Monte…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Zhengjie Sun , Mengyuan Lv , Xingping Sun

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

There has been a surge of interest in uncertainty quantification for parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) with Gevrey regular inputs. The Gevrey class contains functions that are infinitely smooth with a growth condition on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-18 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja

Recent studies have demonstrated the efficiency of Variational Autoencoders (VAE) to compress high-dimensional implied volatility surfaces into a low dimensional representation. Although this method can be effectively used for pricing…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-09 Sándor Kunsági-Máté , Gábor Fáth , István Csabai , Gábor Molnár-Sáska

We study randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) estimation of a multivariate integral where one of the variables takes only a finite number of values. This problem arises when the variable of integration is drawn from a mixture distribution as…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-19 Valerie N. P. Ho , Art B. Owen , Zexin Pan

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Nikolaos Gianniotis

We present a preconditioned Monte Carlo method for computing high-dimensional multivariate normal and Student-$t$ probabilities arising in spatial statistics. The approach combines a tile-low-rank representation of covariance matrices with…

Computation · Statistics 2020-11-26 Jian Cao , Marc G. Genton , David E. Keyes , George M. Turkiyyah

The preferential sampling of locations chosen to observe a spatio-temporal process has been identified as a major problem across multiple fields. Predictions of the process can be severely biased when standard statistical methodologies are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-05 Joe Watson

A novel algorithm for computing the action of a matrix exponential over a vector is proposed. The algorithm is based on a multilevel Monte Carlo method, and the vector solution is computed probabilistically generating suitable random paths…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Juan A. Acebron , Jose R. Herrero , Jose Monteiro

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is computationally intensive for complex model simulators. To exploit expensive simulations, data-resampling via bootstrapping can be employed to obtain many artificial datasets at little cost.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-05 Umberto Picchini , Richard G. Everitt

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used to simulate complex molecular systems, but standard approaches suffer from metastability. Lately, the use of non-local proposal updates in a collective-variable (CV) space has been proposed in several…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-20 Christoph Schönle , Davide Carbone , Marylou Gabrié , Tony Lelièvre , Gabriel Stoltz

We consider the order of convergence for linear and nonlinear Monte Carlo approximation of compact embeddings from Sobolev spaces of dominating mixed smoothness defined on the torus $\mathbb{T}^d$ into the space $L_{\infty}(\mathbb{T}^d)$…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-02 Glenn Byrenheid , Robert J. Kunsch , Van Kien Nguyen

The efficient evaluation of high-dimensional integrals is of importance in both theoretical and practical fields of science, such as data science, statistical physics, and machine learning. However, exact computation methods suffer from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Radislav Vaisman , Robert Salomone , Dirk P. Kroese

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

We construct integrators to be used in Hamiltonian (or Hybrid) Monte Carlo sampling. The new integrators are easily implementable and, for a given computational budget, may deliver five times as many accepted proposals as standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-25 S. Blanes , M. P. Calvo , F. Casas , J. M. Sanz-Serna

Control variates are a variance-reduction technique for Monte Carlo integration. The principle involves approximating the integrand by a function that can be analytically integrated, and integrating using the Monte Carlo method only the…

Graphics · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Daniel Meister , Takahiro Harada

We motive and calculate Newton--Cotes quadrature integration variance and compare it directly with Monte Carlo (MC) integration variance. We find an equivalence between deterministic quadrature sampling and random MC sampling by noting that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Kevin Vanslette , Abdullatif Al Alsheikh , Kamal Youcef-Toumi