Related papers: Option Pricing and CVA Calculations using the Mont…
We present a generative framework for pricing European-style basket options by learning the conditional terminal distribution of the log arithmetic-weighted basket return. A Mixture Density Network (MDN) maps time-varying market inputs…
Modeling counterparty risk is computationally challenging because it requires the simultaneous evaluation of all the trades with each counterparty under both market and credit risk. We present a multi-Gaussian process regression approach,…
In large domains, Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) is required to estimate the values of the states as efficiently and accurately as possible. However, the standard update rule in backpropagation assumes a stationary distribution for the…
Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…
In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…
The tree-structured stick-breaking process (TS-SBP) mixture model is a non-parametric Bayesian model that can represent tree-like hierarchical structures among the mixture components. For TS-SBP mixture models, only a Markov chain Monte…
Gaussian graphical models can capture complex dependency structures among variables. For such models, Bayesian inference is attractive as it provides principled ways to incorporate prior information and to quantify uncertainty through the…
We propose a tree-based semi-varying coefficient model for the Conway-Maxwell- Poisson (CMP or COM-Poisson) distribution which is a two-parameter generalization of the Poisson distribution and is flexible enough to capture both…
A recent theoretical analysis of a Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) method properly modified from the ``upper confidence bound applied to trees" (UCT) algorithm established a surprising result, due to a great deal of empirical successes…
A plethora of problems in AI, engineering and the sciences are naturally formalized as inference in discrete probabilistic models. Exact inference is often prohibitively expensive, as it may require evaluating the (unnormalized) target…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for computationally expensive black-box optimization. However, traditional BO methods need to solve new problems from scratch, leading to slow convergence. Recent studies try to extend BO to a…
This paper presents a multinomial method for option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential Variance Gamma process. The continuous time Variance Gamma process is approximated by a discrete time Markov chain with the same…
Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods, such as Upper Confidence Bound applied to Trees (UCT), are instrumental to automated planning techniques. However, UCT can be slow to explore an optimal action when it initially appears inferior to…
We introduce the Thresholding Monte Carlo Tree Search problem, in which, given a tree $\mathcal{T}$ and a threshold $\theta$, a player must answer whether the root node value of $\mathcal{T}$ is at least $\theta$ or not. In the given tree,…
A key design constraint when implementing Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms is that it must be possible to cheaply and exactly evaluate the marginal densities of proposal distributions and variational families. This takes…
Constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs), in which the agent optimizes expected payoffs while keeping the expected cost below a given threshold, are the leading framework for safe sequential decision making under stochastic…
Variable Annuity (VA) products expose insurance companies to considerable risk because of the guarantees they provide to buyers of these products. Managing and hedging these risks requires insurers to find the value of key risk metrics for…
The combination of Monte Carlo tree search and neural networks has revolutionized online planning. As neural network approximations are often imperfect, we ask whether uncertainty estimates about the network outputs could be used to improve…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample from a probability distribution $\pi$ defined on a space $(\Theta,\mathcal{T})$ consist of the simulation of realisations of Markov chains $\{\theta_{n},n\geq1\}$ of invariant distribution…
We propose a new variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method with an energy variance extrapolation for large-scale shell-model calculations. This variational Monte Carlo is a stochastic optimization method with a projected correlated condensed…