Related papers: Supercentenarian paradox
Human aging is marked by a steady rise in the risk of dying with age-a process demographers call senescence. Over the past century, life expectancy has risen dramatically, but is this because we are aging slower, or simply starting it…
Due to the distribution of primes among integers, we establish an upper bound for the probability $\mathbb{P}_n$ that the Goldbach conjecture fails. Assuming the conjecture holds true for all even number less than $2N$, we prove this…
Given independent random variables $Y_1, \ldots, Y_n$ with $Y_i \in \{0,1\}$ we test the hypothesis whether the underlying success probabilities $p_i$ are constant or whether they are periodic with an unspecified period length of $r \ge 2$.…
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…
Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…
Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + \theta$, $\theta \in [-1/2,1/2]$, $\theta$ unknown but…
We study the frog model on $\mathbb{Z}$ with particle-wise random geometric lifetimes: each particle has a survival parameter $\pi\in(0,1)$ sampled i.i.d., whose density near $1$ satisfies $f_\pi(u)\sim (1-u)^{\beta-1}L\big((1-u)^{-1}\big)$…
A birthday surprise is the event that, given k uniformly random samples from a sample space of size n, at least two of them are identical. We show that Bernoulli numbers can be used to derive arbitrarily exact bounds on the probability of a…
Many life-history traits, like the age at maturity or adult longevity, are important determinants of the generation time. For instance, semelparous species whose adults reproduce once and die have shorter generation times than iteroparous…
Aging is thought to be a consequence of intrinsic breakdowns in how genetic information is processed. But mounting experimental evidence suggests that aging can be slowed. To help resolve this mystery, I derive a mortality equation which…
Each of the individual factors of the Drake Equation is considered. Each in turn is either abandoned or redefined and finally reduced to a single new factor, fd, the fraction of technological life that is detectable by any means. However,…
(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is…
Ecologists have long argued about the strength of density dependence and population regulation, respectively defined as the short-term and long-term rates of return to equilibrium. Here, I give three arguments for the intractability of…
We consider a neutral haploid population whose generations are not overlapping and whose size is large and constantly of $N$ individuals. Any generation is replaced by a new one and any individual has a single parent. We do not choose the…
A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…
A critical branching process $\left\{Z_{k},k=0,1,2,...\right\} $ in a random environment generated by a sequence of independent and identically distributed random reproduction laws is considered.\ Let $Z_{p,n}$ be the number of particles at…
In this paper we consider two populations whose generations are not overlapping and whose size is large. The number of males and females in both populations is constant. Any generation is replaced by a new one and any individual has two…
Bayesian probability theory is used to analyze the oft-made assumption that humans are typical observers in the universe. Some theoretical calculations make the {\it selection fallacy} that we are randomly chosen from a class of objects by…
Condorcet's paradox is a fundamental result in social choice theory which states that there exist elections in which, no matter which candidate wins, a majority of voters prefer a different candidate. In fact, even if we can select any $k$…
The population is composed of individuals characterised by their genetic strings, phenotypes and ages. We discuss the influence of probabilities of survival of the individuals on the dynamics and phenotypic variability of the population. We…