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In this work, recent results on the moments of balanced P\'olya urns are generalized to unbalanced urns, with the condition that the expected change in total activity at each step is constant. We also provide applications of our results to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Colin Desmarais

We introduce a novel preferential attachment model using the draw variables of a modified P\'olya urn with an expanding number of colors, notably capable of modeling influential opinions (in terms of vertices of high degree) as the graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-15 Somya Singh , Fady Alajaji , Bahman Gharesifard

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-19 Ken Yamamoto

This paper studies a very general urn model stimulated by designs in clinical trials, where the number of balls of different types added to the urn at trial n depends on a random outcome directed by the composition at trials 1,2,...,n-1.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zhi-Dong Bai , Feifang Hu

In classical urn models, one usually draws one ball with replacement at each time unit and then adds one ball of the same colour. Given a weight sequence $(w_k)_{k\in\N}$, the probability of drawing a ball of a certain colour is…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-18 Mickaël Launay

We consider a variant of the randomly reinforced urn where more balls can be simultaneously drawn out and balls of different colors can be simultaneously added. More precisely, at each time-step, the conditional distribution of the number…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-09 Irene Crimaldi

We study the long-time asymptotics of a network of weakly reinforced P\'olya urns. In this system, which extends the WARM introduced by R. van der Hofstad et. al. (2016) to countable networks, the nodes fire at times given by a Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-28 Yannick Couzinié , Christian Hirsch

We consider a two-color P\'{o}lya urn in the case when a fixed number $S$ of balls is added at each step. Assume it is a large urn that is, the second eigenvalue $m$ of the replacement matrix satisfies $1/2<m/S\leq1$. After $n$ drawings,…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-12-30 Brigitte Chauvin , Nicolas Pouyanne , Reda Sahnoun

We introduce a class of stochastic processes with reinforcement consisting of a sequence of random partitions $\{\mathcal{P}_t\}_{t \ge 1}$, where $\mathcal{P}_t$ is a partition of $\{1,2,\dots, Rt\}$. At each time~$t$,~$R$ numbers are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Caio Alves , Rodrigo Ribeiro , Daniel Valesin

In this paper, we prove functional limit theorems for P\'olya urn processes whose number of draws and initial number of balls tend to infinity together. This is motivated by recent work of Borovkov [5], where they prove a functional limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-13 Christopher B. C. Dean

The Friedman's urn model is a popular urn model which is widely used in many disciplines. In particular, it is extensively used in treatment allocation schemes in clinical trials. In this paper, we prove that both the urn composition…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-30 Li-Xin Zhang , Feifang Hu

In this work we generalize Polya urn schemes with possibly infinitely many colors and extend the earlier models described in [4, 5, 7]. We provide a novel and unique approach of representing the observed sequence of colors in terms a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-17 Antar Bandyopadhyay , Debleena Thacker

We give bounds for (central) moments for balanced P\'olya urns under very general conditions. In some cases, these bounds imply that moment convergence holds in earlier known results on asymptotic distribution. The results overlap with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Svante Janson

It is known that in an irreducible small P\'olya urn process, the composition of the urn after suitable normalization converges in distribution to a normal distribution. We show that if the urn also is balanced, this normal convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-23 Svante Janson , Nicolas Pouyanne

An urn contains black and red balls. Let $Z_n$ be the proportion of black balls at time $n$ and $0\leq L<U\leq 1$ random barriers. At each time $n$, a ball $b_n$ is drawn. If $b_n$ is black and $Z_{n-1}<U$, then $b_n$ is replaced together…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-27 Patrizia Berti , Irene Crimaldi , Luca Pratelli , Pietro Rigo

Motivated by recent studies of big samples, this work aims at constructing a parametric model which is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-19 Giacomo Aletti , Irene Crimaldi

We analyse a preferential urn model with randomness using the replica method. The preferential urn model is a stochastic model based on the concept "the rich get richer." The replica analysis clarifies that the preferential urn model with…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-11 Jun Ohkubo , Muneki Yasuda , Kazuyuki Tanaka

We study an urn process with two urns, initialized with a ball each. Balls are added sequentially, the urn being chosen independently with probability proportional to the $\alpha^{th}$ power $(\alpha >1)$ of the existing number of balls. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Svante Janson , Subhabrata Sen , Joel Spencer

This paper considers a class of reinforcement-based learning (namely, perturbed learning automata) and provides a stochastic-stability analysis in repeatedly-played, positive-utility, finite strategic-form games. Prior work in this class of…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-01-29 Georgios C. Chasparis

We describe a universality class of the transitions of a generalized P\'{o}lya urn by studying the asymptotic behavior of the normalized correlation function $C(t)$ using finite-size scaling analysis. $X(1),X(2),\cdots$ are the successive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-18 Shintaro Mori , Masato Hisakado