Related papers: Deciphering dynamics of recent COVID-19 outbreak i…
Epidemiological models are the mathematical models that capture the dynamics of epidemics. The spread of the virus has two routes - exogenous and endogenous. The exogenous spread is from outside the population under study, and endogenous…
The outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome in December 2019 has escalated into a worldwide pandemic. In this work, we propose a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of transmission of infection and…
This manuscript proposes a model of $n$ distinct populations interaction structured SEIR to describe the spread of COVID-19 pandemic diseases. The proposed model has the flexibility to include geographically separated communities as well as…
There are several reports in India that indicate hospitals and quarantined centers are COVID-19 hotspots. In the absence of efficient contact tracing tools, Govt. and the policymakers may not be paying attention to the risk of…
We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…
In this article, we discuss an age-structured SIR model in which disease not only spread through direct person to person contacts for e.g. infection due to surface contamination but it can also spread through indirect contacts. It is…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…
The SEIR model is a widely used epidemiological model used to predict the rise in infections. This model has been widely used in different countries to predict the number of Covid-19 cases. But the original SEIR model does not take into…
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
According to the current perception, symptomatic, presymptomatic, and asymptomatic infectious persons can infect the healthy population susceptible to the SARS-Cov-2. More importantly, various reports indicate that the number of…
The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…
We make a retrospective review on various control measures taken by 127 countries/territories during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic until July 7, 2020, and evaluate their impacts on the epidemic dynamics quantitatively. The SEIR-QD…
The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…
In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…