Related papers: Deciphering dynamics of recent COVID-19 outbreak i…
The infectious diseases are spreading due to human interactions enabled by various social networks. Therefore, when a new pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 causes an outbreak, the non-pharmaceutical isolation strategies (e.g., social distancing)…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
In this study initially, we propose an age structured model and calculate the equilibrium points and basic reproduction number. Later we propose an optimal control problem to understand the roles of treatment in controlling the epidemic.…
Understanding the factors that impact how a communicable disease like COVID-19 spreads is of central importance to mitigate future outbreaks. Traditionally, epidemic surveillance and forecasting analyses have focused on epidemiological data…
We present a compartmental SEIAR model of epidemic spread as a generalization of the SEIR model. We believe that the asymptomatic infectious cohort is an omitted part of the understanding of the epidemic dynamics of disease COVID-19. We…
In March of 2020, many U.S. state governments encouraged or mandated restrictions on social interactions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that has spread to nearly 180 countries.…
In dynamic models of infectious disease transmission, typically various mixing patterns are imposed on the so-called Who-Acquires-Infection-From-Whom matrix (WAIFW). These imposed mixing patterns are based on prior knowledge of age-related…
As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the…
The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…
SARS-COV-2 has stopped the world in its footsteps and a third of the population has been forced to stay at home. Here we present a comparative study of the performance of states of India, in curbing the spread of the disease, that are most…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
A reaction-diffusion model was developed describing the spread of the COVID-19 virus considering the mean daily movement of susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic individuals. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed infection…
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the…
In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
The special epistemic characteristics of the COVID-19, such as the long incubation period and the infection through asymptomatic cases, put severe challenge to the containment of its outbreak. By the end of March 2020, China has…
The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a constant population into six compartments. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity…
We have performed individual-based lattice simulations of SIR and SEIR dynamics to investigate both the short and long-term dynamics of childhood epidemics. In our model, infection takes place through a combination of local and long-range…
As of November 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing rapidly in many countries. In Europe, the virus spread slowed considerably in the late spring due to strict lockdown, but a second wave of the pandemic grew throughout the…
Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different…