Related papers: Modelling preventive measures and their effect on …
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
We considered a model for an infectious disease outbreak, when the depletion of susceptible individuals is negligible, and assumed that individuals adapt their behavior according to the information they receive about new cases. In line with…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
The propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative…
We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…
Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…
A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…
We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in…
This work introduces a new markovian stochastic model that can be described as a non-homogeneous Pure Birth process. We propose a functional form of birth rate that depends on the number of individuals in the population and on the elapsed…
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or $R$ number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the…
We introduce a stochastic household model for vector-borne diseases, in particular as relevant to prominent vectors belonging to the Aedes genus and hence the Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses. In this model, vectors remain local to…
Extreme public health interventions play a critical role in mitigating the local and global prevalence and pandemic potential of COVID-19. Here, we use population size for pathogen transmission to measure the intensity of public health…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread on the complete graph on $N$ vertices incorporating dynamic partnerships, which we assume to be monogamous. This can be seen as a variation on the contact process in which some form of edge…