Related papers: Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and…
As of November 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing rapidly in many countries. In Europe, the virus spread slowed considerably in the late spring due to strict lockdown, but a second wave of the pandemic grew throughout the…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
By the end of 2020, a year since the first cases of infection by the Covid-19 virus have been reported, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Several pharmaceutical companies made significant progress in developing effective vaccines…
Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…
This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…
In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…
COVID-19 abatement strategies have risks and uncertainties which could lead to repeating waves of infection. We show -- as proof of concept grounded on rigorous mathematical evidence -- that periodic, high-frequency alternation of into, and…
We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of…
This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…
After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…
Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. Methods: Defining indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, calculated from the daily…
Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…
After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…
In this paper we analyze the impact of vaccinations on spread of the COVID-19 virus for different age groups. More specifically we examine the deployment of vaccines in the Nordic countries in a comparative analysis where we analyze factors…
Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. Current COVID-19 time series for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series…
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying…
Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobility and behaviour, varying disease transmissibility due to…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
Miss-information is usually adjusted to fit distinct narratives and can propagate rapidly through communities of interest, which work as echo chambers, cause reinforcement and foster confirmation bias. False beliefs, once adopted, are…
One of the difficulties in monitoring an ongoing pandemic is deciding on the metric that best describes its status when multiple intercorrelated measurements are available. Having a single measure, such as the effective reproduction number…