Related papers: COVID-19 mortality prediction: A case study for \.…

Understanding how widely COVID-19 has spread is critical for examining the pandemic's progression. Despite efforts to carefully monitor the pandemic, the number of confirmed cases may underestimate the total number of infections. We…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known…

To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the world has vaccination, plasma therapy, herd immunity, and epidemiological interventions as few possible options. The COVID-19 vaccine development is underway and it may take a…

The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…

The years 2020 and 2021 were characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The true impact of the pandemic on populations' health and life still has to be fully discerned. The main objective of this work is to discern the true impact of COVID-19…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…

This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

Intercity travel is one of the most important parameters for combating a pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in different computational studies involving intercity connections. In this study, the effects of intercity…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…

This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

The paper formulates and solves the problem of identification of unknown parameters of mathematical models of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus infection, based on SEIR type models, based on additional information about the number of…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

Using the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model, an analytical formula is derived for the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. The analytical curve is fitted to data in Belgium, France, New York City and…

The unprecedented global crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic has sparked numerous efforts to create predictive models for the detection and prognostication of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the goal of helping health systems allocate…

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…