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Reliably estimating the uncertainty of a prediction throughout the model lifecycle is crucial in many safety-critical applications. The most common way to measure this uncertainty is via the predicted confidence. While this tends to work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

We propose new concentration inequalities for self-normalized martingales. The main idea is to introduce a suitable weighted sum of the predictable quadratic variation and the total quadratic variation of the martingale. It offers much more…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Bernard Bercu , Taieb Touati

Mixture distributions are a workhorse model for multimodal data in information theory, signal processing, and machine learning. Yet even when each component density is simple, the differential entropy of the mixture is notoriously hard to…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Namyoon Lee

The data for many classification problems, such as pattern and speech recognition, follow mixture distributions. To quantify the optimum performance for classification tasks, the Shannon mutual information is a natural information-theoretic…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-22 Yijun Ding , Amit Ashok

We present new concentration of measure inequalities for Markov chains, generalising results for chains that are contracting in Wasserstein distance. These are particularly suited to establishing the cut-off phenomenon for suitable chains.…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Andrew Barbour , Graham Brightwell , Malwina Luczak

This paper develops a general concentration inequality for the suprema of empirical processes with dependent data. The concentration inequality is obtained by combining generic chaining with a coupling-based strategy. Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Chiara Amorino , Christian Brownlees , Ankita Ghosh

We develop novel empirical Bernstein inequalities for the variance of bounded random variables. Our inequalities hold under constant conditional variance and mean, without further assumptions like independence or identical distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas

Minimization of suitable statistical distances~(between the data and model densities) has proved to be a very useful technique in the field of robust inference. Apart from the class of $\phi$-divergences of \cite{a} and \cite{b}, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-25 Sancharee Basak , Ayanendranath Basu

A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-15 Alexis Roche

This manuscript develops the theory of agglomerative clustering with Bregman divergences. Geometric smoothing techniques are developed to deal with degenerate clusters. To allow for cluster models based on exponential families with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Matus Telgarsky , Sanjoy Dasgupta

General Berry-Esseen bounds are developed for the exponential distribution using Stein's method. As an application, a sharp error term is obtained for Hora's result that the spectrum of the Bernoulli-Laplace Markov chain has an exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-04 Sourav Chatterjee , Jason Fulman , Adrian Rollin

We consider a finite or countable collection of one-dimensional Brownian particles whose dynamics at any point in time is determined by their rank in the entire particle system. Using Transportation Cost Inequalities for stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Soumik Pal , Mykhaylo Shkolnikov

In this paper, we present the Bennett-type generalization bounds of the learning process for i.i.d. samples, and then show that the generalization bounds have a faster rate of convergence than the traditional results. In particular, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-09-27 Chao Zhang

In this paper, we study the concentration properties of quadratic forms associated with Markov chains using the martingale decomposition method introduced by Atchad\'e and Cattaneo (2014). In particular, we derive concentration inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-14 Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

Let $\pa{X_{t}}_{t\in T}$ be a family of real-valued centered random variables indexed by a countable set $T$. In the first part of this paper, we establish exponential bounds for the deviation probabilities of the supremum $Z=\sup_{t\in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-11 Yannick Baraud

We study concentration inequalities for structured weighted sums of random data, including (i) tensor inner products and (ii) sequential matrix sums. We are interested in tail bounds and concentration inequalities for those structured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Chen Cheng , Rina Foygel Barber

This work provides a novel convergence analysis for stochastic optimization in terms of stopping times, addressing the practical reality that algorithms are often terminated adaptively based on observed progress. Unlike prior approaches,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Yasong Feng , Yifan Jiang , Tianyu Wang , Zhiliang Ying

This paper provides a bound for the supremum of sample averages over a class of functions for a general class of mixing stochastic processes with arbitrary mixing rates. Regardless of the speed of mixing, the bound is comprised of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Demian Pouzo

We unify f-divergences, Bregman divergences, surrogate loss bounds (regret bounds), proper scoring rules, matching losses, cost curves, ROC-curves and information. We do this by systematically studying integral and variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-01-06 Mark D. Reid , Robert C. Williamson

Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain a better generalization performance. In this work we present a practical method for estimating the joint power of several classifiers. It differs from existing approaches which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Simi Haber , Yonatan Wexler