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We present a new PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. Standard bounds contain a $\sqrt{L_n \cdot \KL/n}$ complexity term which dominates unless $L_n$, the empirical error of the learning algorithm's randomized predictions, vanishes. We manage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Zakaria Mhammedi , Peter D. Grunwald , Benjamin Guedj

Gaussian approximations are routinely employed in Bayesian statistics to ease inference when the target posterior is intractable. Although these approximations are asymptotically justified by Bernstein-von Mises type results, in practice…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Daniele Durante , Francesco Pozza , Botond Szabo

The exponential random graph model (ERGM) is a central object in the study of clustering properties in social networks as well as canonical ensembles in statistical physics. Despite some breakthrough works in the mathematical understanding…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-06 Shirshendu Ganguly , Kyeongsik Nam

Probabilistic regression techniques in control and robotics applications have to fulfill different criteria of data-driven adaptability, computational efficiency, scalability to high dimensions, and the capacity to deal with different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Hany Abdulsamad , Peter Nickl , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

In the problem of aggregation, the aim is to combine a given class of base predictors to achieve predictions nearly as accurate as the best one. In this flexible framework, no assumption is made on the structure of the class or the nature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-30 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

Concentration inequalities quantify the deviation of a random variable from a fixed value. In spite of numerous applications, such as opinion surveys or ecological counting procedures, few concentration results are known for the setting of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-28 Rémi Bardenet , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard

We study the application of the Augmented Lagrangian Method to the solution of linear ill-posed problems. Previously, linear convergence rates with respect to the Bregman distance have been derived under the classical assumption of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Klaus Frick , Markus Grasmair

We present a unified framework for deriving PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Unlike most previous literature on this topic, our bounds are anytime-valid (i.e., time-uniform), meaning that they hold at all stopping times, not only for a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-04 Ben Chugg , Hongjian Wang , Aaditya Ramdas

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

New Vapnik and Chervonenkis type concentration inequalities are derived for the empirical distribution of an independent random sample. Focus is on the maximal deviation over classes of Borel sets within a low probability region. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-26 Stéphane Lhaut , Anne Sabourin , Johan Segers

Matrix concentration inequalities provide a direct way to bound the typical spectral norm of a random matrix. The methods for establishing these results often parallel classical arguments, such as the Laplace transform method. This work…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-29 Joel A. Tropp , Richard Y. Chen

We investigate adaptive mixture methods that linearly combine outputs of $m$ constituent filters running in parallel to model a desired signal. We use "Bregman divergences" and obtain certain multiplicative updates to train the linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Mehmet A. Donmez , Huseyin A. Inan , Suleyman S. Kozat

This paper derives confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for the classical problem of estimating an unknown mean from bounded observations. We present a general approach for deriving concentration bounds, that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-29 Ian Waudby-Smith , Aaditya Ramdas

Concentration inequalities for the sample mean, like those due to Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Bentkus, are valid for any sample size but overly conservative, yielding confidence intervals that are unnecessarily wide. The central limit theorem…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 Morgane Austern , Lester Mackey

Although many convex relaxations of clustering have been proposed in the past decade, current formulations remain restricted to spherical Gaussian or discriminative models and are susceptible to imbalanced clusters. To address these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Hao Cheng , Xinhua Zhang , Dale Schuurmans

Laplace's method, a family of asymptotic methods used to approximate integrals, is presented as a potential candidate for the tool box of techniques used for knowledge acquisition and probabilistic inference in belief networks with…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Adriano Azevedo-Filho , Ross D. Shachter

Statistical inference for exponential-family models of random graphs with dependent edges is challenging. We stress the importance of additional structure and show that additional structure facilitates statistical inference. A simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-13 Michael Schweinberger , Jonathan Stewart

A refinement of Bennett's inequality is introduced which is strictly tighter than the classical bound. The new bound establishes the convergence of the average of independent random variables to its expected value. It also carefully…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Tony Jebara

Analyzing probabilistic programs and randomized algorithms are classical problems in computer science. The first basic problem in the analysis of stochastic processes is to consider the expectation or mean, and another basic problem is to…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2020-08-13 Jinyi Wang , Yican Sun , Hongfei Fu , Mingzhang Huang , Amir Kafshdar Goharshady , Krishnendu Chatterjee

This paper derives exponential tail bounds and polynomial moment inequalities for the spectral norm deviation of a random matrix from its mean value. The argument depends on a matrix extension of Stein's method of exchangeable pairs for…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Daniel Paulin , Lester Mackey , Joel A. Tropp