Related papers: Optimal Lockdown to Manage an Epidemic
Pandemics involve the high transmission of a disease that impacts global and local health and economic patterns. The impact of a pandemic can be minimized by enforcing certain restrictions on a community. However, while minimizing infection…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
As the world fights to contain and control the spread of the Novel Coronavirus, countries are imposing severe measures from restrictions on travel and social gatherings to complete lockdowns. Lockdowns, though effective in controlling the…
The outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the intricate interplay between public health and economic stability on a global scale. This study proposes a novel reinforcement learning framework designed to optimize health and economic outcomes…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
In the context of epidemiology, policies for disease control are often devised through a mixture of intuition and brute-force, whereby the set of logically conceivable policies is narrowed down to a small family described by a few…
We introduce a policy model coupled with the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model to study interactions between policy-making and the dynamics of epidemics. We consider both single-region policies, as well as game-theoretic…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…
Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…
In this paper, we address a social planner's optimal control problem for a partially observable stochastic epidemic model. The control measures include social distancing, testing, and vaccination. Using a diffusion approximation for the…
To reduce the impact of COVID-19 pandemic most countries have implemented several counter-measures to control the virus spread including school and border closing, shutting down public transport and workplace and restrictions on gathering.…
Epidemiologists model the dynamics of epidemics in order to propose control strategies based on pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact limitation, lock down, vaccination, etc). Hand-designing such strategies is not…
The recent coronavirus outbreak has made governments face an inconvenient tradeoff choice, i.e. the choice between saving lives and saving the economy, forcing them to make immensely consequential decisions among alternative courses of…
We apply optimal control theory to a tuberculosis model given by a system of ordinary differential equations. Optimal control strategies are proposed to minimize the cost of interventions, considering reinfection and post-exposure…
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as banning public events or instituting lockdowns have been widely applied around the world to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Typically, this type of intervention is imposed when an…
Efficient testing and vaccination protocols are critical aspects of epidemic management. To study the optimal allocation of limited testing and vaccination resources in a heterogeneous contact network of interacting susceptible, recovered,…
The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of nowadays. The design of optimal control policies is perplexed from a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on…
As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy helped. And if it did,…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…