Related papers: A framework for estimating and visualising excess …
In this paper we develop statistical methods for causal inference in epidemics. Our focus is in estimating the effect of social mobility on deaths in the Covid-19 pandemic. We propose a marginal structural model motivated by a modified…
We propose a new method that uses tensor completion to estimate causal effects with multivariate longitudinal data, data in which multiple outcomes are observed for each unit and time period. Our motivation is to estimate the number of…
This paper investigates projection of two major causes of cancer mortality, breast cancer and lung cancer, by using a Bayesian modelling framework. We investigate patterns in 2001-2018 (as baseline) in cause-specific cancer mortality and…
Substance overdose mortality in the United States claimed over 80,000 lives in 2023, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing trends through healthcare disruptions and behavioral changes. Estimating excess mortality, defined as…
Predictive models with a focus on different spatial-temporal scales benefit governments and healthcare systems to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present the conditional Long Short-Term Memory networks with Quantile output…
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…
This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…
Covid-19 is responsible for high mortality in all countries, with the maternal population it is no different. Countries with a high rate of maternal mortality have deficiencies in the health care of pregnant women and women who have…
A model-based signal processing framework is proposed for pandemic trend forecasting and control, by using non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) at regional and country levels worldwide. The control objective is to prescribe quantifiable…
Modeling the spread of COVID-19 is crucial for informing public health policy. All models for COVID-19 epidemiology rely on parameters describing the dynamics of the infection process. The meanings of epidemiological parameters like R_0,…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown…
Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…
I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…
The world has seen in 2020 an unprecedented global outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, a new strain of coronavirus, causing the COVID-19 pandemic, and radically changing our lives and work conditions. Many scientists are working tirelessly to find a…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…
Forecasting new cases, hospitalizations, and disease-induced deaths is an important part of infectious disease surveillance and helps guide health officials in implementing effective countermeasures. For disease surveillance in the U.S.,…
The current COVID-19 pandemic poses numerous challenges for ongoing clinical trials and provides a stress-testing environment for the existing principles and practice of estimands in clinical trials. The pandemic may increase the rate of…
This study describes the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and infections via a Monte Carlo approach. The analyses include death's data from USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, India and Russia, which comprise the four countries with the highest number of…
The patterns of human mobility play a key role in the spreading of infectious diseases and thus represent a key ingredient of epidemic modeling and forecasting. Unfortunately, as the Covid-19 pandemic has dramatically highlighted, for the…