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Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexander Amini , Wilko Schwarting , Ava Soleimany , Daniela Rus

It has recently been shown that ReLU networks produce arbitrarily over-confident predictions far away from the training data. Thus, ReLU networks do not know when they don't know. However, this is a highly important property in safety…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-24 Alexander Meinke , Matthias Hein

Deep neural networks are known to achieve superior results in classification tasks. However, it has been recently shown that they are incapable to detect examples that are generated by a distribution which is different than the one they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Aristotelis-Angelos Papadopoulos , Nazim Shaikh , Mohammad Reza Rajati

Standard machine learning is unable to accommodate inputs which do not belong to the training distribution. The resulting models often give rise to confident incorrect predictions which may lead to devastating consequences. This problem is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Matej Grcić , Petra Bevandić , Zoran Kalafatić , Siniša Šegvić

Despite the significant research efforts on trajectory prediction for automated driving, limited work exists on assessing the prediction reliability. To address this limitation we propose an approach that covers two sources of error, namely…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Julian Wiederer , Julian Schmidt , Ulrich Kressel , Klaus Dietmayer , Vasileios Belagiannis

Current deep learning solutions are well known for not informing whether they can reliably classify an example during inference. One of the most effective ways to build more reliable deep learning solutions is to improve their performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-09 David Macêdo

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) instances is crucial for the reliable deployment of machine learning models in real-world scenarios. OOD inputs are commonly expected to cause a more uncertain prediction in the primary task; however,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Mohammad Azizmalayeri , Ameen Abu-Hanna , Giovanni Cinà

Deep neural networks have significantly contributed to the success in predictive accuracy for classification tasks. However, they tend to make over-confident predictions in real-world settings, where domain shifting and out-of-distribution…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Yibo Hu , Latifur Khan

Out-of-distribution detection is an important capability that has long eluded vanilla neural networks. Deep Neural networks (DNNs) tend to generate over-confident predictions when presented with inputs that are significantly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Sumedh A Sontakke , Buvaneswari Ramanan , Laurent Itti , Thomas Woo

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

It is crucial to detect when an instance lies downright too far from the training samples for the machine learning model to be trusted, a challenge known as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. For neural networks, one approach to this task…

The question whether inputs are valid for the problem a neural network is trying to solve has sparked interest in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. It is widely assumed that Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are well suited for this task,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Francesco D'Angelo , Christian Henning

Consider a prediction setting with few in-distribution labeled examples and many unlabeled examples both in- and out-of-distribution (OOD). The goal is to learn a model which performs well both in-distribution and OOD. In these settings,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Sang Michael Xie , Ananya Kumar , Robbie Jones , Fereshte Khani , Tengyu Ma , Percy Liang

Neural networks have revolutionized the field of machine learning with increased predictive capability. In addition to improving the predictions of neural networks, there is a simultaneous demand for reliable uncertainty quantification on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Ethan Ancell , Christopher Bennett , Bert Debusschere , Sapan Agarwal , Park Hays , T. Patrick Xiao

Deep neural networks are known to be overconfident when applied to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs which clearly do not belong to any class. This is a problem in safety-critical applications since a reliable assessment of the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Julian Bitterwolf , Alexander Meinke , Matthias Hein

Though remarkable progress has been achieved in various vision tasks, deep neural networks still suffer obvious performance degradation when tested in out-of-distribution scenarios. We argue that the feature statistics (mean and standard…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Xiaotong Li , Yongxing Dai , Yixiao Ge , Jun Liu , Ying Shan , Ling-Yu Duan

Deep Learning research is advancing at a fantastic rate, and there is much to gain from transferring this knowledge to older fields like Computational Fluid Dynamics in practical engineering contexts. This work compares state-of-the-art…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-10-01 Pierre Jacquier , Azzedine Abdedou , Vincent Delmas , Azzeddine Soulaimani

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales