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Uncertainty quantification methods are required in autonomous systems that include deep learning (DL) components to assess the confidence of their estimations. However, to successfully deploy DL components in safety-critical autonomous…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Fabio Arnez , Huascar Espinoza , Ansgar Radermacher , François Terrier

Out-of-distribution detection (OOD) deals with anomalous input to neural networks. In the past, specialized methods have been proposed to reject predictions on anomalous input. Similarly, it was shown that feature extraction models in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Jan Diers , Christian Pigorsch

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Sebastian Bieringer , Sascha Diefenbacher , Gregor Kasieczka , Mathias Trabs

The superior performance of object detectors is often established under the condition that the test samples are in the same distribution as the training data. However, in many practical applications, out-of-distribution (OOD) instances are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Tianhao Zhang , Shenglin Wang , Nidhal Bouaynaya , Radu Calinescu , Lyudmila Mihaylova

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

Discriminative neural networks offer little or no performance guarantees when deployed on data not generated by the same process as the training distribution. On such out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, the prediction may not only be…

Refraining from confidently predicting when faced with categories of inputs different from those seen during training is an important requirement for the safe deployment of deep learning systems. While simple to state, this has been a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-18 Sunil Thulasidasan , Sushil Thapa , Sayera Dhaubhadel , Gopinath Chennupati , Tanmoy Bhattacharya , Jeff Bilmes

The ability of a deep learning network to distinguish between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs is crucial for ensuring the reliability and trustworthiness of AI systems. Existing OOD detection methods often involve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Gagandeep Singh , Ishan Mishra , Deepak Mishra

We present a method for making neural network predictions robust to shifts from the training data distribution. The proposed method is based on making predictions via a diverse set of cues (called 'middle domains') and ensembling them into…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-09-06 Teresa Yeo , Oğuzhan Fatih Kar , Alexander Sax , Amir Zamir

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-02 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Melih Kandemir

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-20 Dennis Ulmer , Lotta Meijerink , Giovanni Cinà

Calibration error is commonly adopted for evaluating the quality of uncertainty estimators in deep neural networks. In this paper, we argue that such a metric is highly beneficial for training predictive models, even when we do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Jayaraman J. Thiagarajan , Bindya Venkatesh , Deepta Rajan

Machine learning (ML) systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains where reliability is paramount. This thesis investigates how uncertainty estimation can enhance the safety and trustworthiness of ML, focusing on selective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Stephan Rabanser

We propose a method for improving the prediction accuracy of learned robot dynamics models on out-of-distribution (OOD) states. We achieve this by leveraging two key sources of structure often present in robot dynamics: 1) sparsity, i.e.,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-03-21 Yating Lin , Glen Chou , Dmitry Berenson

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-08 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , Alnur Ali , John C. Duchi

Data-driven control in unknown environments requires a clear understanding of the involved uncertainties for ensuring safety and efficient exploration. While aleatoric uncertainty that arises from measurement noise can often be explicitly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Neha Das , Jonas Umlauft , Armin Lederer , Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche
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