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Related papers: Positive Time Series Regression Models

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Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-10 Marko Voutilainen , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

The positive link prediction (PLP) problem is formulated in a system identification framework: we consider dynamic graphical models for auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) Gaussian random processes. For the identification of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Daniele Alpago , Mattia Zorzi , Augusto Ferrante

In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-21 Wai Hoh Tang , Adrian Röllin

In this paper, we introduce the concept of fractional integration for spatial autoregressive models. We show that the range of the dependence can be spatially extended or diminished by introducing a further fractional integration parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-14 Philipp Otto , Philipp Sibbertsen

The literature on time series of functional data has focused on processes of which the probabilistic law is either constant over time or constant up to its second-order structure. Especially for long stretches of data it is desirable to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-21 Anne van Delft , Michael Eichler

We propose new parametric frameworks of regression analysis with the conditional mode of a bounded response as the focal point of interest. Covariate effects estimation and prediction based on the maximum likelihood method under two new…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-22 Haiming Zhou , Xianzheng Huang

In this paper we suggest two continuous-time models which exhibit an autoregressive structure. We obtain existence and uniqueness results and study the structure of the solution processes. One of the models, which corresponds to general…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-13 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Mikkel Slot Nielsen , Jan Pedersen , Victor Rohde

In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval $(a,b)$ following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-16 Fábio Mariano Bayer , Débora Missio Bayer , Guilherme Pumi

Linear processes on functional spaces were born about fifteen years ago. And this original topic went through the same fast development as the other areas of functional data modeling such as PCA or regression. They aim at generalizing to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 André Mas , Besnik Pumo

In this paper we propose a new optimization model for maximum likelihood estimation of causal and invertible ARMA models. Through a set of numerical experiments we show how our proposed model outperforms, both in terms of quality of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-27 Leonardo Di Gangi , Matteo Lapucci , Fabio Schoen , Alessio Sortino

This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including ARMA models with asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) errors. The classical mean-variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location-scale models so that…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-03 Jungsik Noh , Sangyeol Lee

In this work we introduce a class of dynamic models for time series taking values on the unit interval. The proposed model follows a generalized linear model approach where the random component, conditioned on the past information, follows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-16 Guilherme Pumi , Taiane Schaedler Prass , Rafael Rigão Souza

In this paper, we propose a regression model where the response variable is beta prime distributed using a new parameterization of this distribution that is indexed by mean and precision parameters. The proposed regression model is useful…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-23 Marcelo Bourguignon , Manoel Santos-Neto , Mário de Castro

This paper proposes the quantile unit-log-symmetric autoregressive moving average (QULS--ARMA) model for bounded time series on the open unit interval $(0,1)$. The model extends the unit-log-symmetric family by introducing a quantile-based…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-26 Helton Saulo , Roberto Vila , Filidor Vilca

An emerging number of modern applications involve forecasting time series data that exhibit both short-time dynamics and long-time seasonality. Specifically, time series with multiple seasonality is a difficult task with comparatively fewer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-31 Tianyang Xie , Jie Ding

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-14 Céline Lévy-Leduc , Sarah Ouadah , Laure Sansonnet

The thinning-based integer-valued autoregressive moving-average (INARMA) models are popular for count time series. Recently, types of INARMA models have also been developed for count random fields, i.e., for spatial count data located on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Angelika Silbernagel , Christian H. Weiß

In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-09 Javier E. Contreras-Reyes , Wilfredo Palma

This paper describes a new method for generating stationary integer-valued time series from renewal processes. We prove that if the lifetime distribution of renewal processes is nonlattice and the probability generating function is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Sergiy Koshkin , Yunwei Cui

Modelling physical data with linear discrete time series, namely Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARFIMA), is a technique which achieved attention in recent years. However, these models are used mainly as a statistical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-03-20 Jakub Ślęzak , Aleksander Weron