Related papers: Positive Time Series Regression Models
Threshold autoregressive moving-average (TARMA) models are popular in time series analysis due to their ability to parsimoniously describe several complex dynamical features. However, neither theory nor estimation methods are currently…
This paper focuses on testing for the presence of alpha in time-varying factor pricing models, specifically when the number of securities N is larger than the time dimension of the return series T. We introduce a maximum-type test that…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…
A novel approach is proposed to group redundant time series in the frame of causality. It assumes that (i) the dynamics of the system can be described using just a small number of characteristic modes, and that (ii) a pairwise measure of…
A transformation relation between multivariate ARMA and CARMA processes is derived through a discretization procedure. This gives a direct relationship between the discrete time and continuous time analogues, serving as the basis for an…
Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
We introduce and explore a new class of stationary time series models for variance matrices based on a constructive definition exploiting inverse Wishart distribution theory. The main class of models explored is a novel class of stationary,…
This paper explores seasonal and long-memory time series properties by using the seasonal fractional ARIMA model when the seasonal data has one and two seasonal periods and short-memory counterparts. The stationarity and invertibility…
We study the dynamics of matrix-valued time series with observed network structures by proposing a matrix network autoregression model with row and column networks of the subjects. We incorporate covariate information and a low rank…
It is shown that in the multivariate case the orders p, of the AR part, and q, of the MA part, are not invariants of the time series. Thus, it is concluded that it only makes sense to define the class of ARMA(p,p)- irreducible models, where…
Modern technological advances have enabled an unprecedented amount of structured data with complex temporal dependence, urging the need for new methods to efficiently model and forecast high-dimensional tensor-valued time series. This paper…
We review autoregressive models for the analysis of multivariate count time series. In doing so, we discuss the choice of a suitable distribution for a vectors of count random variables. This review focus on three main approaches taken for…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
We propose a novel and efficient iterative two-stage variable selection approach for multivariate sparse GLARMA models, which can be used for modelling multivariate discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…
Contemporary time series analysis has seen more and more tensor type data, from many fields. For example, stocks can be grouped according to Size, Book-to-Market ratio, and Operating Profitability, leading to a 3-way tensor observation at…
We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…