Related papers: Modeling COVID-19 Transmission using IDSIM, an Epi…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…

Hospitalisations from COVID-19 with Omicron sub-lineages have put a sustained pressure on the English healthcare system. Understanding the expected healthcare demand enables more effective and timely planning from public health. We collect…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

Contacts between people are the absolute drivers of contagious respiratory infections. For this reason, limiting and tracking contacts is a key strategy for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Digital contact tracing has been proposed as…

This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…

Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M). Among other applications,…

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…

The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed the role of online social networks (OSNs) in the spread of infectious diseases. The rise in severity of the epidemic augments the need for proper guidelines, but also promotes the propagation of fake…

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…

Current models of COVID-19 transmission predict infection from reported or assumed interactions. Here we leverage high-resolution observations of interaction to simulate infectious processes. Ultra-Wide Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)…

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…

We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…

Since the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in December 2019, studies have been addressing diverse aspects in relation to COVID-19 and Variant of Concern 202012/01 (VOC 202012/01) such as potential symptoms and predictive tools.…

The dose-response model has been widely used for quantifying the risk of infection of airborne diseases like COVID-19. The model has been used in the room-average analysis of infection risk and analysis using passive scalars as a proxy for…

Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and pending the establishment of vaccination campaigns, several non pharmaceutical interventions such as partial and full lockdown, quarantine and measures of physical distancing have been…

COVID-19 has devastated the entire global community. Vaccines present an opportunity to mitigate the pandemic; however, the effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. We propose a…

Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…

Within-host models of COVID-19 infection dynamics enable the merits of different forms of antiviral therapy to be assessed in individual patients. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 intracellular dynamics is introduced here, that…