Related papers: Modeling Immunity to Malaria with an Age-Structure…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
Malaria, a mosquito-borne disease caused by a parasite, kills over 1 million people globally each year. People, if left untreated, may develop severe complications, leading to death. Effective and accurate diagnosis is important for the…
The illness-death model of a chronic disease consists of the states 'Normal', 'Disease' and 'Death'. In general, the transition rates between the states depend on three time scales: calendar time, age and duration of the chronic disease.…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models used in mathematical epidemiology assume explicitly or implicitly large populations. For the study of infections in a hospital this is an extremely restrictive assumption as typically a hospital…
The outbreak of mutant strains and vaccination behaviors have been the focus of recent epidemiological research, but most existing epidemic models failed to simultaneously capture viral mutation and consider the complexity and behavioral…
We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria…
This research paper introduces an SQIR-V epidemic model to investigate the transmission of infectious diseases. Particular attention is paid to the roles of vaccination and quarantine (incorporating physical distancing interventions) in…
Approximately 24 million pregnant women in Sub-Saharan Africa are at risk of suffering from pregnancy malaria complications. Mechanisms responsible for increased susceptibility to malaria in pregnant women are not fully understood. Baboons…
Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…
Although interventional studies demonstrate that preventing malaria during pregnancy can reduce the low birth weight (i.e., child's birth weight $<$ 2,500 grams) rate, it remains unknown whether natural changes in parasite transmission and…
OBJECTIVE: To propose a new approach to analyze the age-distribution of reported cases for vector-transmitted infections. METHODS: Using officially reported number of cases of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria and leishmaniasis for…
Dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials for decades in tropical and subtropical countries. We construct a compartmental model that includes the risk of hospitalization and its impact on public health policies. The…
With over 50% of the country's population at risk of contracting malaria despite the introduction of several measures to combat the disease, Zimbabwe is one of the eight countries in the Malaria Elimination 8 platform of the Southern…
Statistical analysis based on quantile regression methods is more comprehensive, flexible, and less sensitive to outliers when compared to mean regression methods. When the link between different diseases are of interest, joint disease…
Genetic variations in the COVID-19 virus are one of the main causes of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020 and 2021. In this article, we aim to introduce a new type of model, a system coupled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs),…
In this paper, we consider the infection-age-dependent Kermack--McKendrick model in which host individuals are distributed in a continuous state space. To provide a mathematical foundation for the heterogeneous model, we develop a…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
The contact structure of a population plays an important role in transmission of infection. Many ``structured models'' capture aspects of the contact structure through an underlying network or a mixing matrix. An important observation in…