Related papers: Modeling Immunity to Malaria with an Age-Structure…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
We study the global stability issue of the reaction-convection-diffusion cholera epidemic PDE model and show that the basic reproduction number serves as a threshold parameter that predicts whether cholera will persist or become globally…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
In the face of serious infectious diseases, governments endeavour to implement containment measures such as public vaccination at a macroscopic level. Meanwhile, individuals tend to protect themselves by avoiding contacts with infections at…
As acute climate change impacts weather and climate variability, there is increased demand for robust climate impact model predictions from which forecasts of the impacts can be derived. The quality of those predictions are limited by the…
SIRS epidemic models assume that individual immunity (from infection and vaccination) wanes in one big leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that's…
The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
We study a multi-group SAIRS-type epidemic model with vaccination. The role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the transmission pattern of the disease among the groups in which the population…
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…
Time varying susceptibility of host at individual level due to waning and boosting immunity is known to induce rich long-term behavior of disease transmission dynamics. Meanwhile, the impact of the time varying heterogeneity of host…
We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…
This study assesses the impact of COVID-19 vaccines through an epidemiological model that quantifies their role in pandemic control. We analyze an SIR-based model incorporating vaccination effects and calculate the basic reproduction…