Related papers: Rainbow Options under Bayesian MS-VAR Process
Predictions from machine learning algorithms can vary across random seeds, inducing instability in downstream debiased machine learning estimators. We formalize random seed stability via a concentration condition and prove that subbagging…
In this paper we present a very simple way to price a class of barrier options when the underlying process is driven by a huge class of L\'evy processes. To achieve our goal we assume that our market satisfies a symmetry property. In case…
The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…
In some options markets (e.g. commodities), options are listed with only a single maturity for each underlying. In others, (e.g. equities, currencies), options are listed with multiple maturities. In this paper, we provide an algorithm for…
Array-RQMC has been proposed as a way to effectively apply randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) when simulating a Markov chain over a large number of steps to estimate an expected cost or reward. The method can be very effective when the…
A regularized vector autoregressive hidden semi-Markov model is developed to analyze multivariate financial time series with switching data generating regimes. Furthermore, an augmented EM algorithm is proposed for parameter estimation by…
In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes dynamics. The proposed…
Valuation-Based~System can represent knowledge in different domains including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and possibility theory. More recent studies show that the framework of VBS is also appropriate for representing and…
In this paper, we consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and random horizon. Unlike previous works, the dynamic of assets are described by non-Markovian regime-switching models in the sense that…
This paper explores the mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a multi-period financial market characterized by regime-switching dynamics and uncontrollable liabilities. To address the uncertainty in the decision-making process within…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
Many complex dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector…
This paper deals with existence and uniqueness, in viscosity sense, of a solution for a system of m variational partial differential inequalities with inter-connected obstacles. A particular case of this system is the deterministic version…
We derive the stochastic price process for tokens whose sole price discovery mechanism is a constant-product automated market maker (AMM). When the net flow into the pool follows a diffusion, the token price follows a constant elasticity of…
In this paper, we study the option pricing problems for rough volatility models. As the framework is non-Markovian, the value function for a European option is not deterministic; rather, it is random and satisfies a backward stochastic…
This manuscript presents an advanced framework for Bayesian learning by incorporating action and state-dependent signal variances into decision-making models. This framework is pivotal in understanding complex data-feedback loops and…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
The sampling efficiency of MCMC methods in Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility (SV) models is known to highly depend on the actual parameter values, and the effectiveness of samplers based on different parameterizations varies…
We consider the filtering problem of estimating a hidden random variable $X$ by noisy observations. The noisy observation process is constructed by a randomised Markov bridge (RMB) $(Z_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ of which terminal value is set to…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…