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When combining apparently inconsistent experimental results, one often implements errors on errors. The Particle Data Group's phenomenological prescription offers a practical solution but lacks a firm theoretical foundation. To address…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-08-22 Satoshi Mishima , Kin-ya Oda

Restricted mean survival time (RMST) is an intuitive summary statistic for time-to-event random variables, and can be used for measuring treatment effects. Compared to hazard ratio, its estimation procedure is robust against the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-25 Ruizhe Chen , Sanjib Basu , Qian Shi

Survival analysis is a statistical framework for modeling time-to-event data, particularly valuable in healthcare for predicting outcomes like patient discharge or recurrence. This study implements and compares several survival models -…

Joint models for longitudinal and survival data have become a popular framework for studying the association between repeatedly measured biomarkers and clinical events. Nevertheless, addressing complex survival data structures, especially…

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Matthew R. Williams

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

Survival analysis is one of the most important fields of statistics in medicine and the biological sciences. In addition, the computational advances in the last decades have favoured the use of Bayesian methods in this context, providing a…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-28 Danilo Alvares , Elena Lázaro , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Carmen Armero

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

Empirical Bayes methods offer valuable tools for a large class of compound decision problems. In this tutorial we describe some basic principles of the empirical Bayes paradigm stressing their frequentist interpretation. Emphasis is placed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Roger Koenker , Jiaying Gu

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Jake C. Snell , Thomas L. Griffiths

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , Sohrab Salehi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Trial-based economic evaluations are typically performed on cross-sectional variables, derived from the responses for only the completers in the study, using methods that ignore the complexities of utility and cost data (e.g. skewness and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-21 Andrea Gabrio , Michael J. Daniels , Gianluca Baio

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Yajuan Si , Peigen Zhou

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes

Aims: Combinations of treatments can offer additional benefit over the treatments individually. However, trials of these combinations are lower priority than the development of novel therapies, which can restrict funding, timelines and…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

Large-sample Bayesian analogs exist for many frequentist methods, but are less well-known for the widely-used 'sandwich' or 'robust' variance estimates. We review existing approaches to Bayesian analogs of sandwich variance estimates and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Kendrick Qijun Li , Kenneth Martin Rice

In early-phase cancer clinical trials, the limited availability of data presents significant challenges in developing a framework to efficiently quantify treatment effectiveness. To address this, we propose a novel utility-based Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Saurabh Bhandari , Michael J. Daniels , Chenguang Wang

There is increasing interest in flexible parametric models for the analysis of time-to-event data, yet Bayesian approaches that offer incorporation of prior knowledge remain underused. A flexible Bayesian parametric model has recently been…

While many studies have previously conducted direct comparisons between results obtained from frequentist and Bayesian models, our research introduces a novel perspective by examining these models in the context of a small dataset…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-19 Georgios P. Georgiou
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