English

Implementing Errors on Errors: Bayesian vs Frequentist

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology 2025-08-22 v2 Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics High Energy Physics - Experiment Methodology

Abstract

When combining apparently inconsistent experimental results, one often implements errors on errors. The Particle Data Group's phenomenological prescription offers a practical solution but lacks a firm theoretical foundation. To address this, D'Agostini and Cowan have proposed Bayesian and frequentist approaches, respectively, both introducing gamma-distributed auxiliary variables to model uncertainty in quoted errors. In this Letter, we show that these two formulations admit a parameter-by-parameter correspondence, and are structurally equivalent. This identification clarifies how Bayesian prior choices can be interpreted in terms of frequentist sampling assumptions, providing a unified probabilistic framework for modeling uncertainty in quoted variances.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2505.06521,
  title  = {Implementing Errors on Errors: Bayesian vs Frequentist},
  author = {Satoshi Mishima and Kin-ya Oda},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.06521},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Version accepted for publication in Eur. Phys. J. C; footnotes 2, 5, and 11 added; Refs. [13,14] added; minor revisions; 11 pages, 1 figure