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We combine hierarchical Bayesian modeling with a flow-based deep generative network, in order to demonstrate that one can efficiently constraint numerical gravitational wave (GW) population models at a previously intractable complexity.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-07-07 Kaze W. K. Wong , Gabriella Contardo , Shirley Ho

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

Binary population synthesis simulations allow detailed modelling of gravitational-wave sources from a variety of formation channels. These population models can be compared to the observed catalogue of merging binaries to infer the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-07-30 Storm Colloms , Christopher P L Berry , John Veitch , Michael Zevin

The detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration has ushered in a new era of observational astronomy, emphasizing the need for rapid and detailed parameter estimation and population-level analyses. Traditional…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-07-22 Bo Liang , He Wang

We propose parameterizing the population distribution of the gravitational wave population modeling framework (Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis) with a normalizing flow. We first demonstrate the merit of this method on illustrative…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-01-02 David Ruhe , Kaze Wong , Miles Cranmer , Patrick Forré

Population synthesis simulations of compact binary coalescences~(CBCs) play a crucial role in extracting astrophysical insights from an ensemble of gravitational wave~(GW) observations. However, realistic simulations can be costly to…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-09-04 Anarya Ray

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

We introduce the use of autoregressive normalizing flows for rapid likelihood-free inference of binary black hole system parameters from gravitational-wave data with deep neural networks. A normalizing flow is an invertible mapping on a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-25 Stephen R. Green , Christine Simpson , Jonathan Gair

The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-04-02 Miaoxin Liu , Xiao-Dong Li , Alvin J. K. Chua

Studying the impact of systematic effects, optimizing survey strategies, assessing tensions between different probes and exploring synergies of different data sets require a large number of simulated likelihood analyses, each of which cost…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-07 Supranta S. Boruah , Tim Eifler , Vivian Miranda , Sai Krishanth P. M

We report on advances to interpret current and future gravitational-wave events in light of astrophysical simulations. A machine-learning emulator is trained on numerical population-synthesis predictions and inserted into a Bayesian…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2019-10-30 Kaze W. K. Wong , Davide Gerosa

Strong gravitational lensing is a powerful tool for probing the nature of dark matter, as lensing signals are sensitive to the dark matter substructure within the lensing galaxy. We present a comparative analysis of strong gravitational…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2025-07-29 Jack Lonergan , Andrew Benson , Daniel Gilman

We present an automatic approach to discover analytic population models for gravitational-wave (GW) events from data. As more gravitational-wave (GW) events are detected, flexible models such as Gaussian Mixture Models have become more…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-27 Kaze W. K Wong , Miles Cranmer

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Steven Stetzler , Michael Grosskopf , Earl Lawrence

The growing number of gravitational-wave detections from binary black holes enables increasingly precise measurements of their population properties. The observed population is most likely drawn from multiple formation channels.…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-08-28 Storm Colloms , Christopher P L Berry , John Veitch , Michael Zevin

Flow-based generative modeling is a powerful tool for solving inverse problems in physical sciences that can be used for sampling and likelihood evaluation with much lower inference times than traditional methods. We propose to refine flows…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Benjamin Holzschuh , Nils Thuerey

Gravitational-wave analyses depend heavily on waveforms that model the evolution of compact binary coalescences as seen by observing detectors. In many cases these waveforms are given by waveform approximants, models that approximate the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-10-11 Quirijn Meijer , Sarah Caudill

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) perform Bayesian posterior inference with expensive MCMC methods. Given a dataset of ~10-100 pulsars and O(10^3) timing residuals each, producing a posterior distribution for the stochastic gravitational wave…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-20 David Shih , Marat Freytsis , Stephen R. Taylor , Jeff A. Dror , Nolan Smyth

In order to extract information about the properties of compact binaries, we must estimate the noise power spectral density of gravitational-wave data, which depends on the properties of the gravitational-wave detector. In practice, it is…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-18 Colm Talbot , Eric Thrane

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population. This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2021-11-11 Christopher J. Moore , Davide Gerosa
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