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We derive a Fisher matrix for the parameters characterising a population of gravitational-wave events. This provides a guide to the precision with which population parameters can be estimated with multiple observations, which becomes…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-12-14 Jonathan R. Gair , Andrea Antonelli , Riccardo Barbieri

Gravity inversion is a commonly applied data analysis technique in the field of geophysics. While machine learning methods have previously been explored for the problem of gravity inversion, these are deterministic approaches returning a…

Bayesian inference is the workhorse of gravitational-wave astronomy, for example, determining the mass and spins of merging black holes, revealing the neutron star equation of state, and unveiling the population properties of compact…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-04 Colm Talbot , Rory Smith , Eric Thrane , Gregory B. Poole

Weak gravitational lensing maps compactly encode the evolution of cosmic large-scale structure and are a key tool for cosmological analyses. Performing inference directly at the map level allows flexible choices of statistics and can…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-25 Guangjian Li , Tomasz Kacprzak

We present an accelerated pipeline, based on high-performance computing techniques and normalizing flows, for joint Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection and demonstrate its efficiency in gravitational wave astrophysics. We…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-01 Alicja Polanska , Thibeau Wouters , Peter T. H. Pang , Kaze K. W. Wong , Jason D. McEwen

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed sources whose unusual properties challenge our understanding of compact-binary formation. Inferring the formation processes that are best able to reproduce such events may therefore yield key…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-09-08 Matthew Mould , Davide Gerosa , Marco Dall'Amico , Michela Mapelli

The determination of the physical parameters of gravitational wave events is a fundamental pillar in the analysis of the signals observed by the current ground-based interferometers. Typically, this is done using Bayesian inference…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-11-07 M. Andrés-Carcasona , M. Martinez , Ll. M. Mir

Iterative Gaussianization is a fixed-point iteration procedure that can transform any continuous random vector into a Gaussian one. Based on iterative Gaussianization, we propose a new type of normalizing flow model that enables both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Chenlin Meng , Yang Song , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

Recently, Gaussian processes have been used to model the vector field of continuous dynamical systems, referred to as GPODEs, which are characterized by a probabilistic ODE equation. Bayesian inference for these models has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Jian Xu , Shian Du , Junmei Yang , Xinghao Ding , John Paisley , Delu Zeng

Many modern applications of Bayesian inference, such as in cosmology, are based on complicated forward models with high-dimensional parameter spaces. This considerably limits the sampling of posterior distributions conditioned on observed…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-09-17 Marco Raveri , Cyrille Doux , Shivam Pandey

The particle-in-cell numerical method of plasma physics balances a trade-off between computational cost and intrinsic noise. Inference on data produced by these simulations generally consists of binning the data to recover the particle…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2022-02-03 John Donaghy , Kai Germaschewski

We present an exploratory investigation into using Simulation-based Inference techniques, specifically Flow-Matching Posterior Estimation, to construct a posterior density estimator trained using real gravitational-wave detector noise. Our…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-03 Vivien Raymond , Sama Al-Shammari , Alexandre Göttel

Subject of this paper is the simplification of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling as used in Bayesian statistical inference by means of normalising flows, a machine learning method which is able to construct an invertible and differentiable…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-04-24 Tobias Röspel , Adrian Schlosser , Björn Malte Schäfer

As the number of gravitational-wave transient detections grows, the inclusion of marginally significant events in gravitational-wave catalogs will lead to increasing contamination from false positives. In this paper, we address the question…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2020-10-28 Shanika Galaudage , Colm Talbot , Eric Thrane

Gravitational-wave astronomy of compact binaries relies on theoretical models of the gravitational-wave signal that is emitted as binaries coalesce. These models do not only need to be accurate, they also have to be fast to evaluate in…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-03-04 Yoshinta Setyawati , Michael Pürrer , Frank Ohme

Combining multiple events into population analyses is a cornerstone of gravitational-wave astronomy. A critical component of such studies is the assumed population model, which can range from astrophysically motivated functional forms to…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2025-05-21 Cecilia Maria Fabbri , Davide Gerosa , Alessandro Santini , Matthew Mould , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

Approximations are commonly employed in realistic applications of scientific Bayesian inference, often due to convenience if not necessity. In the field of gravitational-wave (GW) data analysis, fast-to-evaluate but approximate waveform…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-03 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Ollie Burke , Alvin J. K. Chua , Matthew C. Edwards , Renate Meyer

The growing number of gravitational-wave (GW) observations allows for constraints to be placed on the underlying population of black holes; current estimates show that black hole spins are small, with binaries more likely to have comparable…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-01-28 Charlie Hoy

Folding uncertainty in theoretical models into Bayesian parameter estimation is necessary in order to make reliable inferences. A general means of achieving this is by marginalizing over model uncertainty using a prior distribution…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-03-04 Christopher J. Moore , Christopher P. L. Berry , Alvin J. K. Chua , Jonathan R. Gair

When using incorrect or inaccurate signal models to perform parameter estimation on a gravitational wave signal, biased parameter estimates will in general be obtained. For a single event this bias may be consistent with the posterior, but…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2015-06-01 Jonathan R. Gair , Christopher J. Moore