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In this article, we consider computing expectations w.r.t. probability measures which are subject to discretization error. Examples include partially observed diffusion processes or inverse problems, where one may have to discretize time…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-25 Jeremy Heng , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Alexander Tarakanov

We consider composite-composite testing problems for the expectation in the Gaussian sequence model where the null hypothesis corresponds to a convex subset $\mathcal{C}$ of $\mathbb{R}^d$. We adopt a minimax point of view and our primary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-24 Gilles Blanchard , Alexandra Carpentier , Maurilio Gutzeit

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Erik Learned-Miller , Philip S. Thomas

The syntactic structure of a sentence is often represented using syntactic dependency trees. The sum of the distances between syntactically related words has been in the limelight for the past decades. Research on dependency distances led…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Lluís Alemany-Puig , Ramon Ferrer-i-Cancho

We present an algorithm that takes a discrete random variable $X$ and a number $m$ and computes a random variable whose support (set of possible outcomes) is of size at most $m$ and whose Kolmogorov distance from $X$ is minimal. In addition…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2018-05-22 Liat Cohen , Dror Fried , Gera Weiss

Motivated by the need for efficient estimation of conditional expectations, we consider a least-squares function approximation problem with heavily polluted data. Existing methods that are effective in the small-noise regime are suboptimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Ben Adcock , Bernhard Hientzsch , Akil Narayan , Yiming Xu

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-24 Xiang Peng , Huixia Judy Wang

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Paul Escande

In this paper, we develop an approach for the exact determination of the minimum sample size for estimating the parameter of an integer-valued random variable, which is parameterized by its expectation. Under some continuity and unimodal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-20 Xinjia Chen , Zhengjia Chen

We consider the classical statistical learning/regression problem, when the value of a real random variable Y is to be predicted based on the observation of another random variable X. Given a class of functions F and a sample of independent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-03 Gabor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

In this paper, the normwise condition number of a linear function of the equality constrained linear least squares solution called the partial condition number is considered. Its expression and closed formulae are first presented when the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-03-29 Hanyu Li , Shaoxin Wang

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Omiros Papaspiliopoulos , Timothée Stumpf-Fétizon , Jonathan Weare

We derive two conditional expectation bounds, which we use to simplify cryptographic security proofs. The first bound relates the expectation of a bounded random variable and the average of its conditional expectations with respect to a set…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-17 Kevin J. Compton

This paper is on the normal approximation of singular subspaces when the noise matrix has i.i.d. entries. Our contributions are three-fold. First, we derive an explicit representation formula of the empirical spectral projectors. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Dong Xia

Computing the variance of a conditional expectation has often been of importance in uncertainty quantification. Sun et al. has introduced an unbiased nested Monte Carlo estimator, which they call $1\frac{1}{2}$-level simulation since the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-09 Takashi Goda

The condition number of a linear function of the indefinite least squares solution is called the partial condition number for the indefinite least squares problem. In this paper, based on a new and very general condition number which can be…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-05 Hanyu Li , Shaoxin Wang

The linear conditional expectation (LCE) provides a best linear (or rather, affine) estimate of the conditional expectation and hence plays an important r\^ole in approximate Bayesian inference, especially the Bayes linear approach. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-26 Ilja Klebanov , Björn Sprungk , T. J. Sullivan

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is being increasingly used in machine learning applications as an alternative to the Wasserstein distance and offers significant computational and statistical benefits. Since it is defined as an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-05 Kimia Nadjahi , Alain Durmus , Pierre E. Jacob , Roland Badeau , Umut Şimşekli

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-16 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candès , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-25 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach