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Estimating individual-level treatment effect from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference and has attracted increasing attention in the fields of education, healthcare, and public policy.In this work, we concentrate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Hui Meng , Keping Yang , Xuyu Peng , Bo Zheng

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

Time-to-event outcomes are often subject to left truncation and right censoring. While many survival analysis methods have been developed to handle truncation and censoring, majority of the past works require strong independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Yuyao Wang , Andrew Ying , Ronghui Xu

This article proposes doubly robust estimators for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in difference-in-differences (DID) research designs. In contrast to alternative DID estimators, the proposed estimators are consistent if…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Jun B. Zhao

This paper studies nonparametric identification and estimation of causal effects in centralized school assignment. In many centralized assignment algorithms, students face both lottery-driven variation and regression discontinuity- (RD)…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Jiafeng Chen

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) often rely on very large datasets for training. Given the large size of such datasets, it is conceivable that they contain certain samples that either do not contribute or negatively impact the DNN's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Kashyap Chitta , Jose M. Alvarez , Elmar Haussmann , Clement Farabet

The Doubly Robust (DR) estimation of ATE can be carried out in 2 steps, where in the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the DR estimator. The model misspecification in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela , Michael Escobar

Outcome-dependent sampling designs are extensively utilized in various scientific disciplines, including epidemiology, ecology, and economics, with retrospective case-control studies being specific examples of such designs. Additionally, if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Min Zeng , Zeyang Jia , Zijian Sui , Jinfeng Xu , Hong Zhang

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in biomedical research. For instance, when estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), a doubly robust estimation procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Chi-Shian Dai , Chao Ying , Yang Ning , Jiwei Zhao

We propose plug-in (PI) and double machine learning (DML) estimators of average treatment effect (ATE), average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) and local average treatment effect (LATE) in the multivariate sample selection model with…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-18 Sofiia Dolgikh , Bodan Potanin

We study Federated Causal Inference, an approach to estimate treatment effects from decentralized data across centers. We compare three classes of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators derived from the Plug-in G-Formula, ranging from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

In paired randomized experiments individuals in a given matched pair may differ on prognostically important covariates despite the best efforts of practitioners. We examine the use of regression adjustment as a way to correct for persistent…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-27 Colin B. Fogarty

Background: Randomized controlled trials are often used to inform policy and practice for broad populations. The average treatment effect (ATE) for a target population, however, may be different from the ATE observed in a trial if there are…

This paper presents an inference method for the local average treatment effect (LATE) in the presence of high-dimensional covariates, regardless of the strength of identification. We propose an orthogonalized Anderson-Rubin test statistic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Yukun Ma

Estimating causal effects from observational data is essential in fields such as medicine, economics and social sciences, where privacy concerns are paramount. We propose a general, model-agnostic framework for differentially private…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Christian Janos Lebeda , Mathieu Even , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

We propose an optimistic estimate to evaluate the best possible fitting performance of nonlinear models. It yields an optimistic sample size that quantifies the smallest possible sample size to fit/recover a target function using a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Yaoyu Zhang , Zhongwang Zhang , Leyang Zhang , Zhiwei Bai , Tao Luo , Zhi-Qin John Xu

Randomized controlled trials often suffer from interference, a violation of the Stable Unit Treatment Values Assumption (SUTVA) in which a unit's treatment assignment affects the outcomes of its neighbors. This interference causes bias in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Vydhourie Thiyageswaran , Tyler McCormick , Jennifer Brennan

Purpose: A core component of advancing cancer treatment research is assessing response to therapy. Doing so by hand, for example as per RECIST or RANO criteria, is tedious, time-consuming, and can miss important tumor response information;…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-03-25 Joseph Stember , Robert Young , Hrithwik Shalu

In nonseparable triangular models with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrumental variable, Vuong and Xu (2017) established identification results for individual treatment effects (ITEs) under the rank invariance assumption.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-10 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Zhengfei Yu

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit