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In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-26 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

We study the problem of estimation of Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) in the context of multiple treatments and networked observational data. Leveraging the network information, we aim to utilize hidden confounders that may not be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-20 Abhinav Thorat , Ravi Kolla , Niranjan Pedanekar , Naoyuki Onoe

Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) represent a paradigm shift in tabular data prediction. We present the principles of this new paradigm and evaluate two PFNs for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of a binary treatment on a…

Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Nathan Kallus

A new method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect is proposed in the paper. It is called TNW-CATE (the Trainable Nadaraya-Watson regression for CATE) and based on the assumption that the number of controls is rather large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-20 Andrei V. Konstantinov , Stanislav R. Kirpichenko , Lev V. Utkin

In this paper we consider Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with a smooth activation function as surrogates for high-dimensional functions that are somewhat smooth but costly to evaluate. We consider the standard (non-periodic) DNNs as well as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-04 Alexander Keller , Frances Y. Kuo , Dirk Nuyens , Ian H. Sloan

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark

This paper focuses on understanding how the generalization error scales with the amount of the training data for deep neural networks (DNNs). Existing techniques in statistical learning require computation of capacity measures, such as VC…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-06 Devansh Bisla , Apoorva Nandini Saridena , Anna Choromanska

Researchers often use linear regression to analyse randomized experiments to improve treatment effect estimation by adjusting for imbalances of covariates in the treatment and control groups. Our work offers a randomization-based inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Hanzhong Liu , Yuehan Yang

In social media platforms, user behavior is often influenced by interactions with other users, complicating the accurate estimation of causal effects in traditional A/B experiments. This study investigates situations where an individual's…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-02-21 Lu Deng , Yilin Li , JingJing Zhang , Yong Wang , Chuan Chen

Decision-making often requires accurate estimation of treatment effects from observational data. This is challenging as outcomes of alternative decisions are not observed and have to be estimated. Previous methods estimate outcomes based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

Causal inference on the average treatment effect (ATE) using non-probability samples, such as electronic health records (EHR), faces challenges from sample selection bias and high-dimensional covariates. This requires considering a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Jiacong Du , Xu Shi , Donglin Zeng , Bhramar Mukherjee

Two-phase sampling is a simple and cost-effective estimation strategy in survey sampling and is widely used in practice. Because the phase-2 sampling probability typically depends on low-cost variables collected at phase 1, naive estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Kazuharu Harada , Masataka Taguri

We consider a data-driven newsvendor problem, where one has access to past demand data and the associated feature information. We solve the problem by estimating the target quantile function using a deep neural network (DNN). The remarkable…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Jinhui Han , Ming Hu , Guohao Shen

In causal inference, a fundamental task is to estimate the effect resulting from a specific treatment, which is often handled with inverse probability weighting. Despite an abundance of attention to the advancement of this task, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Kuan-Hsun Wu

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been shown vulnerable to Test-Time Evasion attacks (TTEs, or adversarial examples), which, by making small changes to the input, alter the DNN's decision. We propose an unsupervised attack detector on DNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-13 Hang Wang , David J. Miller , George Kesidis

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under sequentially adaptive treatment assignment mechanisms. In contrast to classical completely randomized designs, we consider a setting in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Saikat Sengupta , Koulik Khamaru , Suvrojit Ghosh , Tirthankar Dasgupta

In this paper, we develop a general theory for adaptive nonparametric estimation of the mean function of a non-stationary and nonlinear time series model using deep neural networks (DNNs). We first consider two types of DNN estimators,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Daisuke Kurisu , Riku Fukami , Yuta Koike