Related papers: Multi-scale simulation of COVID-19 epidemics
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evolving transmission dynamics. We propose a class of…
Taking the context of simulating a retail environment using agent based modelling, a theoretical model is presented that describes the probability distribution of customer "collisions" using a novel space transformation to the Torus…
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a surge in the interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. Disease transmission may be modeled as compartmental models, in which the population under study is divided into…
In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to…
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection.…
Agent-based model (ABM) are a kind of computer model that makes it possible to simulate a set of autonomous interacting programs called agents in a shared virtual environment. Among other application field, it has been commonly used to…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been ongoing for around 3 years, and has infected over 750 million people and caused over 6 million deaths worldwide at the time of writing. Throughout the pandemic, several strategies…
Public health officials dealing with pandemics like COVID-19 have to evaluate and prepare response plans. This planning phase requires not only looking into the spatiotemporal dynamics and impact of the pandemic using simulation models, but…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…
In the new paradigm of health-centric governance, policy makers are in a constant need for appropriate metrics and estimates in order to determine the best policies in a non-arbitrary fashion. Thus, in this paper, a compartmentalized model…
Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain…