Related papers: Martingale product estimators for sensitivity anal…

We propose a flexible class of models based on scale mixture of uniform distributions to construct shrinkage priors for covariance matrix estimation. This new class of priors enjoys a number of advantages over the traditional scale mixture…

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

We introduce a general framework that constructs estimators with reduced variance for random walk Metropolis and Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms. The resulting estimators require negligible computational cost and are derived in a…

In this paper we derive novel change of variable formulas for stochastic integrals w.r.t. a time-changed Brownian motion where we assume that the time-change is a general increasing stochastic process with finitely many jumps in a bounded…

We address parameter estimation in second-order stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which are prevalent in physics, biology, and ecology. The second-order SDE is converted to a first-order system by introducing an auxiliary velocity…

In previous work, we introduced a method for determining convergence rates for integration methods for the kinetic Langevin equation for $M$-$\nabla$Lipschitz $m$-log-concave densities [arXiv:2302.10684, 2023]. In this article, we exploit…

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…

The martingale characterizes a kind of fairness or unbiased nature of the stochastic process which is associated with another stochastic process. If $x_t$ evolves according to the Langevin equation whose mean drift is $a_t$ as function of…

Time-varying stochastic optimization problems frequently arise in machine learning practice (e.g. gradual domain shift, object tracking, strategic classification). Although most problems are solved in discrete time, the underlying process…

This paper contributes to the study of relative martingales. Specifically, for a closed random set $H$, they are processes null on $H$ which decompose as $M=m+v$, where $m$ is a c\`adl\`ag uniformly integrable martingale and, $v$ is a…

In this paper we study the path-regularity and martingale properties of the set-valued stochastic integrals defined in our previous work Ararat et al. (2023). Such integrals have some fundamental differences from the well-known…

We consider the problem of discrete-time signal denoising, focusing on a specific family of non-linear convolution-type estimators. Each such estimator is associated with a time-invariant filter which is obtained adaptively, by solving a…

We propose a data-driven method to learn the time-dependent probability density of a multivariate stochastic process from sample paths, assuming that the initial probability density is known and can be evaluated. Our method uses a novel…

Stochastic differential equations provide a powerful tool for modelling dynamic phenomena affected by random noise. In case of repeated observations of time series for several experimental units, it is often the case that some of the…

We propose a shrinkage procedure for simultaneous variable selection and estimation in generalized linear models (GLMs) with an explicit predictive motivation. The procedure estimates the coefficients by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler…

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

We introduce a new approach to a linear-circular regression problem that relates multiple linear predictors to a circular response. We follow a modeling approach of a wrapped normal distribution that describes angular variables and angular…

We present a novel methodology based on filtered data and moving averages for estimating effective dynamics from observations of multiscale systems. We show in a semi-parametric framework of the Langevin type that our approach is…

Applications of stochastic models often involve the evaluation of steady-state performance, which requires solving a set of balance equations. In most cases of interest, the number of equations is infinite or even uncountable. As a result,…