Related papers: Pricing cryptocurrencies : Modelling the ETHBTC sp…
We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that…
The primary challenge of market making in spot precious metals is navigating the liquidity that is mainly provided by futures contracts. The Exchange for Physical (EFP) spread, which is the price difference between futures and spot, plays a…
Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is hindered by extreme volatility and a methodological dilemma between information-scarce univariate models and noise-prone full-multivariate models. This paper investigates a partial-multivariate approach…
We consider the pricing of energy spread options for spot prices following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a sum of independent multivariate variance gamma processes, which gives rise to mean-reverting, infinite activity…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…
Digital currencies have become popular in the last decade due to their non-dependency and decentralized nature. The price of these currencies has seen a lot of fluctuations at times, which has increased the need for prediction. As their…
A technique for on-line estimation of spot volatility for high-frequency data is developed. The algorithm works directly on the transaction data and updates the volatility estimate immediately after the occurrence of a new transaction.…
We introduce stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a time-dependent nonnegative function of a reflecting diffusion. The idea to use reflecting diffusions as building blocks of the volatility came into being…
In recent literature it is claimed that BitCoin price behaves more likely to a volatile stock asset than a currency and that changes in its price are influenced by sentiment about the BitCoin system itself; in Kristoufek [10] the author…
We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…
We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…
Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and…
Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices follows a tempered stable or a CGMY driven Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process. To this end, we first calculate the characteristic function of the…
This paper discusses the dynamics of intraday prices of twelve cryptocurrencies during last months' boom and bust. The importance of this study lies on the extended coverage of the cryptoworld, accounting for more than 90\% of the total…
Bitcoin is currently subject to a significant pay-for-speed trade-off. This is caused by lengthy and highly variable transaction confirmation times, especially during times of congestion. Users can reduce their transaction confirmation…
We study the full distribution of $A=\int_{0}^{T}x^{n}\left(t\right)dt$, $n=1,2,\dots$, where $x\left(t\right)$ is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We find that for $n>2$ the long-time ($T \to \infty$) scaling form of the distribution is of…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
This document analyzes price discovery in cryptocurrency markets by comparing centralized and decentralized exchanges, as well as spot and futures markets. The study focuses first on Ethereum (ETH) and then applies a similar approach to…
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…