Related papers: Sensitivity analysis in an Immuno-Epidemiological …
An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…
Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…
The concept of the mutual influence that awareness and disease may exert on each other has recently presented significant challenges. The actions individuals take to prevent contracting a disease and their level of awareness can profoundly…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…
A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
The susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model is analyzed through a degree-based mean-field approach. In this work, a mitigation factor is introduced in the probability of finding an infected individual following an edge. This…
Households play an important role in disease dynamics. Many infections happening there due to the close contact, while mitigation measures mainly target the transmission between households. Therefore, one can see households as boosting the…
This paper introduces semiparametric relative-risk regression models for infectious disease data based on contact intervals, where the contact interval from person i to person j is the time between the onset of infectiousness in i and…
In this paper we propose a method to study a general vector-hosts mathematical model in order to explain how the changes in biodiversity could influence the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. We find that under the assumption of…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…
Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…
We investigate the effects of modular and temporal connectivity patterns on epidemic spreading. To this end, we introduce and analytically characterise a model of time-varying networks with tunable modularity. Within this framework, we…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
The dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics and its ongoing progression boosted the scientific community's interest in epidemic modeling and forecasting. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a…
In this paper, we study a reaction-diffusion vector-host epidemic model. We define the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and show that $R_0$ is a threshold parameter: if $R_0\le 1$ the disease free steady state is globally stable; if $R_0>1$…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Two simple agent based models are often employed in epidemic studies: the susceptible-infected (SI) and the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS). Both models describe the time evolution of infectious diseases in networks in which vertices…