Related papers: Gradient-based estimation of linear Hawkes process…

Attributed event sequences are commonly encountered in practice. A recent research line focuses on incorporating neural networks with the statistical model -- marked point processes, which is the conventional tool for dealing with…

We study a multivariate Hawkes process as a model for time-continuous relational event networks. The model does not assume the network to be known, it includes covariates, and it allows for both common drivers, parameters common to all the…

Gaussian processes (GPs) have gained popularity as flexible machine learning models for regression and function approximation with an in-built method for uncertainty quantification. However, GPs suffer when the amount of training data is…

The Primal-Dual hybrid gradient (PDHG) method is a powerful optimization scheme that breaks complex problems into simple sub-steps. Unfortunately, PDHG methods require the user to choose stepsize parameters, and the speed of convergence is…

Selection HHs are randomised search methodologies which choose and execute heuristics during the optimisation process from a set of low-level heuristics. A machine learning mechanism is generally used to decide which low-level heuristic…

In this work, we study the event occurrences of individuals interacting in a network. To characterize the dynamic interactions among the individuals, we propose a group network Hawkes process (GNHP) model whose network structure is observed…

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Group-based social dominance hierarchies are of essential interest in animal behavior research. Studies often record aggressive interactions observed over time, and models that can capture such dynamic hierarchy are therefore crucial.…

Local Process Model (LPM) discovery is focused on the mining of a set of process models where each model describes the behavior represented in the event log only partially, i.e. subsets of possible events are taken into account to create…

Recently, a unified framework for adaptive kernel based signal processing of complex data was presented by the authors, which, besides offering techniques to map the input data to complex Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces, developed a…

This paper tackles the challenge of parameter calibration in stochastic models, particularly in scenarios where the likelihood function is unavailable in an analytical form. We introduce a gradient-based simulated parameter estimation…

Event data consisting of time of occurrence of the events arises in several real-world applications. Recent works have introduced neural network based point processes for modeling event-times, and were shown to provide state-of-the-art…

We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral…

Hawkes process models are used in settings where past events increase the likelihood of future events occurring. Many applications record events as counts on a regular grid, yet discrete-time Hawkes models remain comparatively underused and…

Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…

The rapid growth in genomic pathogen data spurs the need for efficient inference techniques, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) in a Bayesian framework, to estimate parameters of these phylogenetic models where the dimensions of the…

When the data are sparse, optimization of hyperparameters of the kernel in Gaussian process regression by the commonly used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) criterion often leads to overfitting. We show that choosing hyperparameters (in…

Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…

This paper extends the existing fractional Hawkes process to better model mainshock-aftershock sequences of earthquakes. The fractional Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process model with temporal decay kernel being a Mittag-Leffler…

We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…