Related papers: Gradient-based estimation of linear Hawkes process…
Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…
Gaussian processes (GPs), or distributions over arbitrary functions in a continuous domain, can be generalized to the multi-output case: a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is one approach. LMCs estimate and exploit correlations…
Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…
A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert…
We present a theoretically grounded Gaussian process framework that leverages neural feature maps to construct expressive kernels. We show that the learned feature map can be interpreted as an optimal low-rank approximation to a Gram matrix…
Moving horizon estimation (MHE) is a widely studied state estimation approach in several practical applications. In the MHE problem, the state estimates are obtained via the solution of an approximated nonlinear optimization problem.…
This article deals with adaptive nonparametric estimation for L\'evy processes observed at low frequency. For general linear functionals of the L\'evy measure, we construct kernel estimators, provide upper risk bounds and derive rates of…
The extent to which a matching engine can cloud the modelling of underlying order submission and management processes in a financial market remains an unanswered concern with regards to market models. Here we consider a 10-variate Hawkes…
Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a versatile algorithm for sampling from target distributions which are not easy to evaluate point-wise. However, pmMH requires good proposal distributions to sample efficiently from the target,…
Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…
Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
Hawkes processes are a self-exciting stochastic process used to describe phenomena whereby past events increase the probability of the occurrence of future events. This work presents a flexible approach for modelling a variant of these,…
Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…
Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…
Metropolis-Hastings estimates intractable expectations - can differentiating the algorithm estimate their gradients? The challenge is that Metropolis-Hastings trajectories are not conventionally differentiable due to the discrete…
Hierarchical matrices approximate a given matrix by a decomposition into low-rank submatrices that can be handled efficiently in factorized form. $\mathcal{H}^2$-matrices refine this representation following the ideas of fast multipole…
In this article we propose multiplication based random walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) algorithm on the real line. We call it the random dive MH (RDMH) algorithm. This algorithm, even if simple to apply, was not studied earlier in Markov…
In this paper, we study the linear transformation model in the most general setup. This model includes many important and popular models in statistics and econometrics as special cases. Although it has been studied for many years, the…
Phase-type (PH) distributions are a popular tool for the analysis of univariate risks in numerous actuarial applications. Their multivariate counterparts (MPH$^\ast$), however, have not seen such a proliferation, due to lack of explicit…