Related papers: Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochasti…
Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are widely used for structural analysis. Often the structural model identified through economically meaningful restrictions--e.g., sign restrictions--is supposed to be…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…
We consider Bayesian tensor vector autoregressions (TVARs) in which the VAR coefficients are arranged as a three-dimensional array or tensor, and this coefficient tensor is parameterized using a low-rank CP decomposition. We develop a…
Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…
In many fields where the main goal is to produce sequential forecasts for decision making problems, the good understanding of the contemporaneous relations among different series is crucial for the estimation of the covariance matrix. In…
The modified Cholesky decomposition is commonly used for precision matrix estimation given a specified order of random variables. However, the order of variables is often not available or cannot be pre-determined. In this work, we propose…
The modified Cholesky decomposition is popular for inverse covariance estimation, but often needs pre-specification on the full information of variable ordering. In this work, we propose a block Cholesky decomposition (BCD) for estimating…
This paper studies the estimation of a large covariance matrix. We introduce a novel procedure called ChoSelect based on the Cholesky factor of the inverse covariance. This method uses a dimension reduction strategy by selecting the pattern…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
Estimation of large sparse covariance matrices is of great importance for statistical analysis, especially in the high-dimensional settings. The traditional approach such as the sample covariance matrix performs poorly due to the high…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…
The paper proposes a new covariance estimator for large covariance matrices when the variables have a natural ordering. Using the Cholesky decomposition of the inverse, we impose a banded structure on the Cholesky factor, and select the…
A causal vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is introduced for weakly stationary multivariate processes, combining a recursive directed graphical model for the contemporaneous components and a vector autoregressive model longitudinally.…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
This work aims at estimating inverse autocovariance matrices of long memory processes admitting a linear representation. A modified Cholesky decomposition is used in conjunction with an increasing order autoregressive model to achieve this…
In this work, we propose a scalable Bayesian procedure for learning the local dependence structure in a high-dimensional model where the variables possess a natural ordering. The ordering of variables can be indexed by time, the vicinities…
The sparse Cholesky parametrization of the inverse covariance matrix can be interpreted as a Gaussian Bayesian network; however its counterpart, the covariance Cholesky factor, has received, with few notable exceptions, little attention so…
Model misspecification in multivariate econometric models can strongly influence estimates of quantities of interest such as structural parameters, forecast distributions or responses to structural shocks, even more so if higher-order…