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The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…
We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…
We consider the problem of variable selection in Bayesian multivariate linear regression models, involving multiple response and predictor variables, under multivariate normal errors. In the absence of a known covariance structure,…
In many applications, data come with a natural ordering. This ordering can often induce local dependence among nearby variables. However, in complex data, the width of this dependence may vary, making simple assumptions such as a constant…
This paper addresses the challenges faced in large-volume trading, where executing substantial orders can result in significant market impact and slippage. To mitigate these effects, this study proposes a volatility-volume-based order…
The increasing size of data sets has lead to variable selection in regression becoming increasingly important. Bayesian approaches are attractive since they allow uncertainty about the choice of variables to be formally included in the…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are a widely used tool for modelling multivariate time-series. It is common to assume a VAR is stationary; this can be enforced by imposing the stationarity condition which restricts the parameter space of the…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a…
The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…
This article proposes a novel Bayesian multivariate quantile regression to forecast the tail behavior of energy commodities, where the homoskedasticity assumption is relaxed to allow for time-varying volatility. In particular, we exploit…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…
We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…
Covariance estimation for high-dimensional datasets is a fundamental problem in modern day statistics with numerous applications. In these high dimensional datasets, the number of variables p is typically larger than the sample size n. A…
We aim to solve a structured convex optimization problem, where a nonsmooth function is composed with a linear operator. When opting for full splitting schemes, usually, primal-dual type methods are employed as they are effective and also…
In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…
Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing…