Related papers: Long Run Law and Entropy
A core challenge in causal inference is how to extrapolate long term effects, of possibly continuous actions, from short term experimental data. It arises in artificial intelligence: the long term consequences of continuous actions may be…
During the last decade Levy processes with jumps have received increasing popularity for modelling market behaviour for both derviative pricing and risk management purposes. Chan et al. (2009) introduced the use of empirical likelihood…
This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval {\Delta} results in…
A uniform law of large numbers and a central limit theorem are established via a martingale approach for a univariate Hawkes process with immigration given by a renewal process. The results are obtained for renewal processes with absolutely…
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we aim at relating the long range correlation of the stocks return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations about the level of the future volatility. Based on a…
Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and financial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as "long".…
We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…
A stochastic model with a continuum of economic agents often involves shocks at both macro and micro levels. This can be formalized by a continuum of random variables that are conditionally independent given the macro level shocks. Based on…
In this article, a sensitivity analysis of long-term cash flows with respect to perturbations in the underlying process is presented. For this purpose, we employ the martingale extraction through which a pricing operator is transformed into…
We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model…
I unravel the basic long run dynamics of the broker call money market, which is the pile of cash that funds margin loans to retail clients (read: continuous time Kelly gamblers). Call money is assumed to supply itself perfectly…
One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a…
We study the effect of drift in pure-jump transaction-level models for asset prices in continuous time, driven by point processes. The drift is as-sumed to arise from a nonzero mean in the efficient shock series. It follows that the drift…
The martingale expansion provides a refined approximation to the marginal distributions of martingales beyond the normal approximation implied by the martingale central limit theorem. We develop a martingale expansion framework specifically…
A mechanism is proposed for the appearance of power law distributions in various complex systems. It is shown that in a conservative mechanical system composed of subsystems with different numbers of degrees of freedom a robust power-law…
We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of a continuous-time perpetuity and the underlying factors which govern the cash flow rate, in an ergodic Markov model. Two approaches are used to obtain the distribution. The…
We develop the fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a probability-free infinite-dimensional setup. We replace the usual assumption of a prior probability by a certain continuity property in the state variable. Probabilities enter then…
Econophysics, is based on the premise that some ideas and methods from physics can be applied to economic situations. We intend to show in this paper how a physics concept such as entropy can be applied to an economic problem. In so doing,…