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This work introduces meta estimators that combine multiple multifidelity techniques based on control variates, importance sampling, and information reuse to yield a quasi-multiplicative amount of variance reduction. The proposed meta…
Discrete diffusion models are a class of generative models that produce samples from an approximated data distribution within a discrete state space. Often, there is a need to target specific regions of the data distribution. Current…
In this work we consider the unbiased estimation of expectations w.r.t.~probability measures that have non-negative Lebesgue density, and which are known point-wise up-to a normalizing constant. We focus upon developing an unbiased method…
When data are clustered, common practice has become to do OLS and use an estimator of the covariance matrix of the OLS estimator that comes close to unbiasedness. In this paper we derive an estimator that is unbiased when the random-effects…
We investigate a weighted Multilevel Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for the ergodic approximation of invariant distributions of diffusions adapted from the one introduced in~[Lemaire-Pag\`es, 2013] for regular Monte Carlo simulation. In a…
Recently a considerable interest has been paid on the estimation problem of the realized volatility and covolatility by using high-frequency data of financial price processes in financial econometrics. Threshold estimation is one of the…
In this paper, we address high-dimensional parametric estimation of the drift function in diffusion models, specifically focusing on a $d$-dimensional ergodic diffusion process observed at discrete time points. We consider both a general…
We study the nonparametric estimation for the intensity of Poisson random measure in jump-diffusion CIR model based on the low frequency observations. This is given in terms of the minimization of norms on a nonempty, closed and convex…
Regional flood frequency analysis is a convenient way to reduce estimation uncertainty when few data are available at the gauging site. In this work, a model that allows a non-null probability to a regional fixed shape parameter is…
A sufficient condition for the uniqueness of multinomial sequential unbiased estimators is provided generalizing a classical result for binomial samples. Unbiased estimators are applied to infer the parameters of multidimensional or…
In this paper, we present the double smoothed nonparametric approach for infinitesimal conditional volatility of jump-diffusion model based on high frequency data. Under certain minimal conditions, we obtain the strong consistency and…
We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity.…
Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…
We obtain large deviation results for a two time-scale model of jump-diffusion processes. The processes on the two time scales are fully inter-dependent, the slow process has small perturbative noise and the fast process is ergodic. Our…
In this paper, we are interested in deriving non-asymptotic error bounds for the multilevel Monte Carlo method. As a first step, we deal with the explicit Euler discretization of stochastic differential equations with a constant diffusion…
Meta-analyses frequently include trials that report multiple effect sizes based on a common set of study participants. These effect sizes will generally be correlated. Cluster-robust variance-covariance estimators are a fruitful approach…
In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…
This paper develops a flexible method for decreasing the variance of estimators for complex experiment effect metrics (e.g. ratio metrics) while retaining asymptotic unbiasedness. This method uses the auxiliary information about the…
We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…
Multilevel Splitting methods, also called Sequential Monte-Carlo or \emph{Subset Simulation}, are widely used methods for estimating extreme probabilities of the form $P[S(\mathbf{U}) > q]$ where $S$ is a deterministic real-valued function…