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Jump diffusion processes are widely used to model asset prices over time, mainly for their ability to capture complex discontinuous behavior, but inference on the model parameters remains a challenge. Here our goal is posterior inference on…
We consider estimating an expected infinite-horizon cumulative discounted cost/reward contingent on an underlying stochastic process by Monte Carlo simulation. An unbiased estimator based on truncating the cumulative cost at a random…
This paper derives closed-form unbiased estimators of central moments in multilevel random-effects models with unbalanced group sizes. In a two-level model, we provide unbiased estimators for the second, third, and fourth central moments…
In this article, we consider a jump diffusion process (X_t), with drift function b, diffusion coefficient sigma and jump coefficient xi^{2}. This process is observed at discrete times t=0,Delta,...,nDelta. The sampling interval Delta tends…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
In this paper we consider two semimartingales driven by diffusions and jumps. We allow both for finite activity and for infinite activity jump components. Given discrete observations we disentangle the {\it integrated covariation} (the…
The Diffusion Monte Carlo method with constant number of walkers, also called Stochastic Reconfiguration as well as Sequential Monte Carlo, is a widely used Monte Carlo methodology for computing the ground-state energy and wave function of…
Standard jump-diffusion models assume independence between jumps and diffusion components. We develop a multi-type jump-diffusion model where jump occurrence and magnitude depend on contemporaneous diffusion movements. Unlike previous…
We discuss a class of difference-based estimators for the autocovariance in nonparametric regression when the signal is discontinuous (change-point regression), possibly highly fluctuating, and the errors form a stationary $m$-dependent…
A Monte Carlo method for simulating a multi-dimensional diffusion process conditioned on hitting a fixed point at a fixed future time is developed. Proposals for such diffusion bridges are obtained by superimposing an additional guiding…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…
We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class…
We consider the question of estimating the drift and the invariant density for a large class of scalar ergodic diffusion processes, based on continuous observations, in $\sup$-norm loss. The unknown drift $b$ is supposed to belong to a…
In this paper we derive stochastic representations for the finite dimensional distributions of a multidimensional diffusion on a fixed time interval, conditioned on the terminal state. The conditioning can be with respect to a fixed point…
Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
Statistical inference for stochastic processes based on high-frequency observations has been an active research area for more than a decade. One of the most well-known and widely studied problems is that of estimation of the quadratic…
The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and…
Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and unbiased estimators recently proposed by McLeish (Monte Carlo Methods Appl., 2011) and Rhee and Glynn (Oper. Res., 2015) are closely related. This connection is elaborated by presenting a new general class…