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Related papers: Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

200 papers

Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-05-14 Nicola Scafetta

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-08-01 John Bailie , Bernd Krauskopf

We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-29 René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-14 Ishu Gupta , Harsh Mittal , Deepak Rikhari , Ashutosh Kumar Singh

Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-07 Francis X. Diebold , Glenn D. Rudebusch

We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-06 Callum Leach , Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Valerio Lembo , Valerio Lucarini , Francesco Ragone

Decadal-scale interactions between the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans play a crucial role in global climate variability through bidirectional teleconnections. Current climate models show persistent biases in representing these basin…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-08 Yan Xia , Yong-Fu Lin , Jin-Yi Yu , Walter Hannah , Mike Pritchard

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-24 R. Chapman , P. Ashwin , J. Baker , R. A. Wood

A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…

Applications · Statistics 2015-07-14 Dmytro Zubov , Humberto A. Barbosa , Gregory S. Duane

Wind-wave and ocean current interactions affect critical coastal and oceanic processes, yet modeling these interactions presents significant challenges. The western North Atlantic Ocean provides an ideal test environment for coupled…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-27 Maria Venolia , Reza Marsooli , Jaime R. Calzada

Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

Applications · Statistics 2018-07-10 Philip G. Sansom , David B. Stephenson , Daniel B. Williamson

Atmospheric transient eddies and low-frequency flow contribution to the ocean surface wave climate in the North Atlantic during boreal winter is investigated (1980 - 2016). We conduct a set of numerical simulations with a state-of-the-art…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-06-10 Margarita Markina , Josh Studholme , Sergey Gulev

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-11 A. Camilletti , G. Franch , E. Tomasi , M. Cristoforetti

In this paper we present an analysis of the geological, meteorological and climatic data recorded in Acquapendente (VT) over 24 years. These data are compared to check local variations,long term trends, and correlation with maen annual…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-16 D. Tasselli , S. Ricci , P. Bianchi

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Johannes Lohmann

A controlling factor in the seasonal and climatological evolution of the sea ice cover is its albedo $\alpha$. Here we analyze Arctic data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder and assess the seasonality…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-10-31 S. Agarwal , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Operational forecasting centers are investing in decadal (1-10 year) forecast systems to support long-term decision making for a more climate-resilient society. One method that has previously been employed is the Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Eduardo Rodrigues , Bianca Zadrozny , Campbell Watson , David Gold

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-02-22 John Taylor , Ming Feng