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Dengue is a viral vector-borne infectious disease that affects many countries worldwide, infecting around 390 million people per year. The main outbreaks occur in subtropical and tropical countries. We study here the influence of climate on…

Flight delays hurt airlines, airports, and passengers. Their prediction is crucial during the decision-making process for all players of commercial aviation. Moreover, the development of accurate prediction models for flight delays became…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Alice Sternberg , Jorge Soares , Diego Carvalho , Eduardo Ogasawara

We improve a recent mathematical model for cholera by adding a time delay that represents the time between the instant at which an individual becomes infected and the instant at which he begins to have symptoms of cholera disease. We prove…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-03 Ana P. Lemos-Paiao , Helmut Maurer , Cristiana J. Silva , Delfim F. M. Torres

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Kirstin Roster , Colm Connaughton , Francisco A. Rodrigues

Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention. While most data-driven forecasting approaches rely primarily on historical data from a single country, such data are often…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-29 Zacharias Komodromos , Kleanthis Malialis , Artemis Kontou , Panayiotis Kolios

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that threatens more than half of the world's population. Despite being endemic to over 100 countries, government-led efforts and mechanisms to timely identify and track the emergence of new infections are…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-09 Shihao Yang , S. C. Kou , Fred Lu , John S. Brownstein , Nicholas Brooke , Mauricio Santillana

Predicting an infectious disease can help reduce its impact by advising public health interventions and personal preventive measures. Novel data streams, such as Internet and social media data, have recently been reported to benefit…

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-24 Ghazaleh Babanejaddehaki , Aijun An , Manos Papagelis

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-02-09 Minkyoung Kim , Dean Paini , Raja Jurdak

Background: Early forecasts of dengue are an important tool for disease mitigation. Neural networks are powerful predictive models that have made contributions to many areas of public health. In this study, we reviewed the application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Luiza Lober , Francisco A. Rodrigues , Kirstin Roster

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…

Real-time forecasting of disease outbreaks requires standardized outputs generated in a timely manner. Development of pipelines to automate infectious disease forecasts can ensure that parameterization and software dependencies are common…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-11 VP Nagraj , Chris Hulme-Lowe , Shakeel Jessa , Stephen D. Turner

In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…

Applications · Statistics 2024-06-19 Cosmin Safta , Wyatt Bridgman , Jaideep Ray

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-24 Neo Wu , Bradley Green , Xue Ben , Shawn O'Banion

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and infectious diseases prediction have recently experienced a common development and advancement. Machine learning (ML) apparition, along with deep learning (DL) emergence, extended many approaches against…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Selestine Melchane , Youssef Elmir , Farid Kacimi , Larbi Boubchir

Infectious disease modeling and forecasting have played a key role in helping assess and respond to epidemics and pandemics. Recent work has leveraged data on disease peak infection and peak hospital incidence to fit compartmental models…

Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-01-06 Hidear Talirongan , Markdy Y. Orong , Florence Jean B. Talirongan

Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Location \& Event Data Project (ACLED) are subject to…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-30 Faniry A. Razakason , Daniel Racek , Paul W. Thurner , Göran Kauermann

This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-21 G. O. Agaba , Y. N. Kyrychko , K. B. Blyuss

In the wake of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, much work has been performed on the development of mathematical models for the simulation of the epidemic, and of disease models generally. Most works follow the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR)…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-18 Nicola Guglielmi , Elisa Iacomini , Alex Viguerie