Related papers: An algorithm for the computation of joint Hawkes m…
We propose a recursive method for the computation of the cumulants of self-exciting point processes of Hawkes type, based on standard combinatorial tools such as Bell polynomials. This closed-form approach is easier to implement on…
Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to…
We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…
We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the…
We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…
Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…
We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…
Many modern spatio-temporal data sets, in sociology, epidemiology or seismology, for example, exhibit self-exciting characteristics, triggering and clustering behaviors both at the same time, that a suitable Hawkes space-time process can…
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…
We introduce a novel and efficient simulation scheme for Hawkes processes on a fixed time grid, leveraging their affine Volterra structure. The key idea is to first simulate the integrated intensity and the counting process using Inverse…
This paper discusses an efficient implementation of the generation of order conditions for the construction of exponential integrators like exponential splitting and Magnus-type methods in the computer algebra system Maple. At the core of…
This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…
In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…
Counting distinct permutations with replacement, especially when involving multiple subwords, is a longstanding challenge in combinatorial analysis, with critical applications in cryptography, bioinformatics, and statistical modeling. This…
Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…
This study explores the application of Hawkes processes to model high-frequency data in the context of limit order books. Two distinct Hawkes-based models are proposed and analyzed: one utilizing exponential kernels and the other employing…
We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…
The Hawks process is a point process with a self-exciting property. It has been used to model earthquakes, social media events, infections, etc., and is getting a lot of attention. However, as a real problem, there are often situations…
The stationarity is assumed in vanilla Hawkes process, which reduces the model complexity but introduces a strong assumption. In this paper, we propose a fast multi-resolution segmentation algorithm to capture the time-varying…